Juventud Torremolinos vs Algeciras Statistics & Analysis

Juventud Torremolinos

Sep 26, 2026 - 14:30

1 1.31

2 1.29

xG Accuracy: 76%

Algeciras

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Juventud Torremolinos Algeciras ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10110251

Closing Odds 2.86

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Algeciras win · Juventud Torremolinos 1–2 Algeciras

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Juventud Torremolinos (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Juventud Torremolinos (1X2) by about 3.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Juventud Torremolinos (1X2)	35.6	32.0	+3.6
Draw (1X2)	29.7	30.4	-0.8
Algeciras (1X2)	34.7	37.5	-2.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	45.5	+2.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.5	-2.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on Juventud Torremolinos (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.0%. The difference — about 3.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Juventud Torremolinos (1X2)	2.86	2.86
Draw (1X2)	3.01	3.01
Algeciras (1X2)	2.44	2.44
Over 2.5 goals	2.06	2.06
Under 2.5 goals	1.72	1.72

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Fixture: Juventud Torremolinos vs Algeciras
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Juventud Torremolinos 1.31 — Algeciras 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Villarreal II	5	4	1	0	13
2	Zaragoza	5	4	0	1	12
3	Real Jaén	5	3	1	1	10
4	Alcorcon	5	2	3	0	9
5	Real Murcia	4	3	0	1	9
6	Hércules	5	3	0	2	9
7	Atlético Madrid II	5	2	2	1	8
8	Antequera	5	2	2	1	8
9	Gimnastic	5	2	1	2	7
10	Sant Andreu	5	2	1	2	7
11	Ibiza	5	2	0	3	6
12	Huesca	5	1	3	1	6
13	FC Cartagena	4	1	2	1	5
14	Real Madrid II	5	1	2	2	5
15	Águilas	5	1	2	2	5
16	Rayo Majadahonda	5	1	1	3	4
17	Algeciras	5	1	1	3	4
18	Europa Fc	5	1	1	3	4
19	Teruel	5	0	2	3	2
20	Juventud Torremolinos	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Villarreal II	5	12	5	+7	13
2	Atlético Madrid II	5	9	5	+4	8
3	Alcorcon	5	8	4	+4	9
4	Zaragoza	5	8	5	+3	12
5	Real Jaén	5	8	5	+3	10
6	Real Murcia	4	8	6	+2	9
7	Antequera	5	8	6	+2	8
8	Gimnastic	5	7	7	0	7
9	Ibiza	5	7	8	-1	6
10	Algeciras	5	7	11	-4	4
11	Juventud Torremolinos	5	6	11	-5	1
12	Hércules	5	5	5	0	9
13	Sant Andreu	5	5	5	0	7
14	Rayo Majadahonda	5	5	6	-1	4
15	FC Cartagena	4	4	3	+1	5
16	Real Madrid II	5	4	4	0	5
17	Huesca	5	4	6	-2	6
18	Águilas	5	4	6	-2	5
19	Europa Fc	5	3	7	-4	4
20	Teruel	5	1	8	-7	2