Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / FC Cartagena vs Real Murcia

FC Cartagena vs Real Murcia Statistics & Analysis

FC Cartagena FC Cartagena
Oct 07, 2026 - 18:30
1 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
Real Murcia Real Murcia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Real Murcia FC Cartagena ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 01, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12187047

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result FC Cartagena win · FC Cartagena 1–0 Real Murcia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.93 percentage points on FC Cartagena (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Real Murcia (1X2) by about 7.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Cartagena (1X2) 34.7 42.9 -8.1
Draw (1X2) 29.7 29.0 +0.7
Real Murcia (1X2) 35.6 28.1 +7.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on Real Murcia (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.1%. The difference — about 7.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: stake com → bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Cartagena (1X2) 2.22 2.1 +1.9
Draw (1X2) 3.1 3.1 -0.3
Real Murcia (1X2) 3.05 3.2 -1.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: FC Cartagena vs Real Murcia
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-07 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): FC Cartagena 1.29 — Real Murcia 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.5% · Probability edge: +4.7 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zaragoza 6 5 0 1 15
2 Villarreal II 6 4 1 1 13
3 Alcorcon 6 3 3 0 12
4 Real Murcia 6 4 0 2 12
5 FC Cartagena 6 3 2 1 11
6 Real Jaén 6 3 2 1 11
7 Hércules 6 3 1 2 10
8 Antequera 6 2 3 1 9
9 Ibiza 6 3 0 3 9
10 Huesca 6 2 3 1 9
11 Atlético Madrid II 6 2 2 2 8
12 Real Madrid II 6 2 2 2 8
13 Sant Andreu 6 2 2 2 8
14 Gimnastic 6 2 1 3 7
15 Algeciras 6 2 1 3 7
16 Águilas 6 1 2 3 5
17 Rayo Majadahonda 6 1 1 4 4
18 Europa Fc 6 1 1 4 4
19 Teruel 6 0 2 4 2
20 Juventud Torremolinos 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Alcorcon 6 13 4 +9 12
2 Zaragoza 6 12 6 +6 15
3 Villarreal II 6 12 6 +6 13
4 Atlético Madrid II 6 11 8 +3 8
5 Real Murcia 6 10 7 +3 12
6 Antequera 6 10 8 +2 9
7 FC Cartagena 6 9 4 +5 11
8 Real Jaén 6 8 5 +3 11
9 Ibiza 6 8 8 0 9
10 Algeciras 6 8 11 -3 7
11 Real Madrid II 6 7 6 +1 8
12 Huesca 6 7 7 0 9
13 Sant Andreu 6 7 7 0 8
14 Gimnastic 6 7 9 -2 7
15 Juventud Torremolinos 6 6 16 -10 1
16 Hércules 6 5 5 0 10
17 Rayo Majadahonda 6 5 7 -2 4
18 Águilas 6 5 10 -5 5
19 Europa Fc 6 4 10 -6 4
20 Teruel 6 2 12 -10 2
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions