Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / UD Ourense vs Barakaldo

UD Ourense vs Barakaldo Statistics & Analysis

UD Ourense UD Ourense
Oct 10, 2026 - 16:45
1 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 64%
Barakaldo Barakaldo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Barakaldo UD Ourense ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13246270

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result UD Ourense win · UD Ourense 1–0 Barakaldo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: UD Ourense vs Barakaldo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 16:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): UD Ourense 1.27 — Barakaldo 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 49.2% · Probability edge: +5.3 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 UD Logroñés 6 5 1 0 16
2 Lugo 6 5 1 0 16
3 Athletic Club II 6 3 2 1 11
4 Cacereño 6 3 2 1 11
5 Ponferradina 6 3 2 1 11
6 Mirandes 6 3 1 2 10
7 Zamora 6 3 1 2 10
8 Racing Ferrol 6 3 1 2 10
9 Real Unión 6 2 2 2 8
10 Deportivo La Coruña II 6 2 2 2 8
11 Pontevedra 6 2 2 2 8
12 Cultural Leonesa 6 2 2 2 8
13 Extremadura 1924 6 2 0 4 6
14 Mérida AD 6 2 0 4 6
15 Unionistas de Salamanca 6 2 0 4 6
16 Barakaldo 6 1 3 2 6
17 Real Avilés 6 1 2 3 5
18 CD Coria 6 1 2 3 5
19 UD Ourense 6 0 2 4 2
20 Arenas Getxo 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 UD Logroñés 6 15 7 +8 16
2 Real Unión 6 13 11 +2 8
3 Athletic Club II 6 12 8 +4 11
4 Lugo 6 9 3 +6 16
5 Mirandes 6 9 7 +2 10
6 Real Avilés 6 9 10 -1 5
7 Mérida AD 6 9 11 -2 6
8 Unionistas de Salamanca 6 9 12 -3 6
9 Zamora 6 8 6 +2 10
10 Deportivo La Coruña II 6 8 7 +1 8
11 Pontevedra 6 8 8 0 8
12 CD Coria 6 8 11 -3 5
13 Racing Ferrol 6 7 5 +2 10
14 Cacereño 6 6 3 +3 11
15 Barakaldo 6 6 9 -3 6
16 Ponferradina 6 5 3 +2 11
17 Extremadura 1924 6 5 6 -1 6
18 Cultural Leonesa 6 4 5 -1 8
19 Arenas Getxo 6 4 14 -10 2
20 UD Ourense 6 2 10 -8 2
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions