Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / Real Unión vs UD Ourense

Real Unión vs UD Ourense Statistics & Analysis

Real Unión Real Unión
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:30
1 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 85%
UD Ourense UD Ourense
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 UD Ourense Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11247693

Closing Odds 1.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Real Unión 1–1 UD Ourense
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), UD Ourense (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on UD Ourense (1X2) by about 21.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Real Unión (1X2) 34.7 66.9 -32.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 19.2 +10.5
UD Ourense (1X2) 35.6 13.8 +21.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.5 -6.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.5 +6.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on UD Ourense (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.8%. The difference — about 21.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Real Unión (1X2) 1.37 1.37 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.77 4.77 0.0
UD Ourense (1X2) 6.62 6.62 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.72 1.72 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.06 2.06 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours UD Ourense; market prices Real Unión instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Real Unión 1.29 xG vs UD Ourense 1.31 → UD Ourense 35.6%
  • Market: Real Unión ~13.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lugo 6 5 1 0 16
2 UD Logroñés 5 4 1 0 13
3 Athletic Club II 5 3 2 0 11
4 Cacereño 5 3 2 0 11
5 Mirandes 5 3 1 1 10
6 Racing Ferrol 6 3 1 2 10
7 Real Unión 6 2 2 2 8
8 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 2 2 1 8
9 Ponferradina 5 2 2 1 8
10 Pontevedra 6 2 2 2 8
11 Cultural Leonesa 6 2 2 2 8
12 Zamora 5 2 1 2 7
13 Unionistas de Salamanca 6 2 0 4 6
14 Barakaldo 6 1 3 2 6
15 Real Avilés 6 1 2 3 5
16 CD Coria 5 1 2 2 5
17 Extremadura 1924 5 1 0 4 3
18 Mérida AD 5 1 0 4 3
19 UD Ourense 6 0 2 4 2
20 Arenas Getxo 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 UD Logroñés 5 13 6 +7 13
2 Real Unión 6 13 11 +2 8
3 Athletic Club II 5 11 5 +6 11
4 Lugo 6 9 3 +6 16
5 Mirandes 5 9 6 +3 10
6 Real Avilés 6 9 10 -1 5
7 Unionistas de Salamanca 6 9 12 -3 6
8 Pontevedra 6 8 8 0 8
9 CD Coria 5 8 9 -1 5
10 Racing Ferrol 6 7 5 +2 10
11 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 7 5 +2 8
12 Mérida AD 5 7 11 -4 3
13 Cacereño 5 6 1 +5 11
14 Zamora 5 6 6 0 7
15 Barakaldo 6 6 9 -3 6
16 Ponferradina 5 4 3 +1 8
17 Cultural Leonesa 6 4 5 -1 8
18 Arenas Getxo 6 4 14 -10 2
19 Extremadura 1924 5 2 5 -3 3
20 UD Ourense 6 2 10 -8 2
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions