Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo

Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo Statistics & Analysis

Barakaldo Barakaldo
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:30
1 1.40
1 1.20
xG Accuracy: 85%
Arenas Getxo Arenas Getxo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Barakaldo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11247634

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Barakaldo 1–1 Arenas Getxo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Barakaldo 1.4 — Arenas Getxo 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lugo 6 5 1 0 16
2 UD Logroñés 5 4 1 0 13
3 Athletic Club II 5 3 2 0 11
4 Cacereño 5 3 2 0 11
5 Mirandes 5 3 1 1 10
6 Racing Ferrol 6 3 1 2 10
7 Real Unión 6 2 2 2 8
8 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 2 2 1 8
9 Ponferradina 5 2 2 1 8
10 Pontevedra 6 2 2 2 8
11 Cultural Leonesa 6 2 2 2 8
12 Zamora 5 2 1 2 7
13 Unionistas de Salamanca 6 2 0 4 6
14 Barakaldo 6 1 3 2 6
15 Real Avilés 6 1 2 3 5
16 CD Coria 5 1 2 2 5
17 Extremadura 1924 5 1 0 4 3
18 Mérida AD 5 1 0 4 3
19 UD Ourense 6 0 2 4 2
20 Arenas Getxo 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 UD Logroñés 5 13 6 +7 13
2 Real Unión 6 13 11 +2 8
3 Athletic Club II 5 11 5 +6 11
4 Lugo 6 9 3 +6 16
5 Mirandes 5 9 6 +3 10
6 Real Avilés 6 9 10 -1 5
7 Unionistas de Salamanca 6 9 12 -3 6
8 Pontevedra 6 8 8 0 8
9 CD Coria 5 8 9 -1 5
10 Racing Ferrol 6 7 5 +2 10
11 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 7 5 +2 8
12 Mérida AD 5 7 11 -4 3
13 Cacereño 5 6 1 +5 11
14 Zamora 5 6 6 0 7
15 Barakaldo 6 6 9 -3 6
16 Ponferradina 5 4 3 +1 8
17 Cultural Leonesa 6 4 5 -1 8
18 Arenas Getxo 6 4 14 -10 2
19 Extremadura 1924 5 2 5 -3 3
20 UD Ourense 6 2 10 -8 2
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions