Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / Ponferradina vs Mérida AD

Ponferradina vs Mérida AD Statistics & Analysis

Ponferradina Ponferradina
Sep 19, 2026 - 16:45
1 1.42
0 1.18
xG Accuracy: 64%
Mérida AD Mérida AD
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ponferradina Ponferradina ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8704772

Closing Odds 1.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ponferradina win · Ponferradina 1–0 Mérida AD
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Mérida AD (1X2), Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Mérida AD (1X2) by about 8.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ponferradina (1X2) 41.0 52.0 -11.0
Draw (1X2) 29.4 27.2 +2.1
Mérida AD (1X2) 29.6 20.8 +8.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 43.7 +4.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 56.3 -4.5
BTTS Yes 54.1 46.4 +7.7
BTTS No 45.9 53.6 -7.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Mérida AD (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.8%. The difference — about 8.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ponferradina (1X2) 1.73 1.73 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
Mérida AD (1X2) 4.33 4.33 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.15 2.15 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.67 1.67 0.0
BTTS Yes 2.0 2.0 0.0
BTTS No 1.73 1.73 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Ponferradina vs Mérida AD
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Ponferradina 1.42 — Mérida AD 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.1% · Implied: 47.8% · Probability edge: +6.3 pts · Est. EV: +8.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lugo 5 4 1 0 13
2 Athletic Club II 5 3 2 0 11
3 UD Logroñés 4 3 1 0 10
4 Cacereño 4 3 1 0 10
5 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 2 2 1 8
6 Cultural Leonesa 5 2 2 1 8
7 Real Unión 5 2 1 2 7
8 Mirandes 4 2 1 1 7
9 Pontevedra 4 2 1 1 7
10 Ponferradina 4 2 1 1 7
11 Zamora 5 2 1 2 7
12 Racing Ferrol 5 2 1 2 7
13 CD Coria 5 1 2 2 5
14 Real Avilés 4 1 1 2 4
15 Barakaldo 4 1 1 2 4
16 Mérida AD 4 1 0 3 3
17 Extremadura 1924 5 1 0 4 3
18 Unionistas de Salamanca 4 1 0 3 3
19 Arenas Getxo 5 0 1 4 1
20 UD Ourense 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Unión 5 12 10 +2 7
2 Athletic Club II 5 11 5 +6 11
3 UD Logroñés 4 8 3 +5 10
4 Mirandes 4 8 6 +2 7
5 CD Coria 5 8 9 -1 5
6 Lugo 5 7 2 +5 13
7 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 7 5 +2 8
8 Pontevedra 4 7 5 +2 7
9 Unionistas de Salamanca 4 7 11 -4 3
10 Cacereño 4 6 1 +5 10
11 Zamora 5 6 6 0 7
12 Racing Ferrol 5 5 5 0 7
13 Real Avilés 4 5 5 0 4
14 Cultural Leonesa 5 4 3 +1 8
15 Mérida AD 4 4 6 -2 3
16 Ponferradina 4 3 2 +1 7
17 Arenas Getxo 5 3 13 -10 1
18 Barakaldo 4 2 5 -3 4
19 Extremadura 1924 5 2 5 -3 3
20 UD Ourense 4 1 9 -8 0
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions