Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / CD Coria vs Real Avilés

CD Coria vs Real Avilés Statistics & Analysis

CD Coria CD Coria
Sep 19, 2026 - 16:45
1 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 85%
Real Avilés Real Avilés
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 CD Coria Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8704762

Closing Odds 2.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · CD Coria 1–1 Real Avilés
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Real Avilés (1X2), Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 6.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
CD Coria (1X2) 37.6 39.0 -1.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.9 -0.3
Real Avilés (1X2) 32.9 31.1 +1.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 41.9 +6.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.1 -6.3
BTTS Yes 54.5 48.5 +6.0
BTTS No 45.5 51.5 -6.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.9%. The difference — about 6.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
CD Coria (1X2) 2.3 2.3 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.0 3.0 0.0
Real Avilés (1X2) 2.88 2.88 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.25 2.25 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.62 1.62 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.91 1.91 0.0
BTTS No 1.8 1.8 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: CD Coria vs Real Avilés
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): CD Coria 1.35 — Real Avilés 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.3% · Probability edge: +5.9 pts · Est. EV: +8.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for CD Coria & Real Avilés!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lugo 5 4 1 0 13
2 Athletic Club II 5 3 2 0 11
3 UD Logroñés 4 3 1 0 10
4 Cacereño 4 3 1 0 10
5 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 2 2 1 8
6 Cultural Leonesa 5 2 2 1 8
7 Real Unión 5 2 1 2 7
8 Mirandes 4 2 1 1 7
9 Pontevedra 4 2 1 1 7
10 Ponferradina 4 2 1 1 7
11 Zamora 5 2 1 2 7
12 Racing Ferrol 5 2 1 2 7
13 CD Coria 5 1 2 2 5
14 Real Avilés 4 1 1 2 4
15 Barakaldo 4 1 1 2 4
16 Mérida AD 4 1 0 3 3
17 Extremadura 1924 5 1 0 4 3
18 Unionistas de Salamanca 4 1 0 3 3
19 Arenas Getxo 5 0 1 4 1
20 UD Ourense 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Unión 5 12 10 +2 7
2 Athletic Club II 5 11 5 +6 11
3 UD Logroñés 4 8 3 +5 10
4 Mirandes 4 8 6 +2 7
5 CD Coria 5 8 9 -1 5
6 Lugo 5 7 2 +5 13
7 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 7 5 +2 8
8 Pontevedra 4 7 5 +2 7
9 Unionistas de Salamanca 4 7 11 -4 3
10 Cacereño 4 6 1 +5 10
11 Zamora 5 6 6 0 7
12 Racing Ferrol 5 5 5 0 7
13 Real Avilés 4 5 5 0 4
14 Cultural Leonesa 5 4 3 +1 8
15 Mérida AD 4 4 6 -2 3
16 Ponferradina 4 3 2 +1 7
17 Arenas Getxo 5 3 13 -10 1
18 Barakaldo 4 2 5 -3 4
19 Extremadura 1924 5 2 5 -3 3
20 UD Ourense 4 1 9 -8 0
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions