Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna Statistics & Analysis

Real Sociedad

Oct 11, 2026 - 14:15

3 1.44

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 53%

Deportivo La Coruna

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13222072

Closing Odds 1.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Real Sociedad win · Real Sociedad 3–2 Deportivo La Coruna

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Deportivo La Coruna (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Deportivo La Coruna (1X2) by about 6.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Real Sociedad (1X2)	45.3	54.1	-8.8
Draw (1X2)	27.7	24.9	+2.8
Deportivo La Coruna (1X2)	27.0	21.0	+6.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.0% on Deportivo La Coruna (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.0%. The difference — about 6.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 → bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Real Sociedad (1X2)	1.75	1.75
Draw (1X2)	3.8	3.8
Deportivo La Coruna (1X2)	4.5	4.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: La Liga
Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 14:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 27.7% · Away 27.0%
xG (showing): Real Sociedad 1.44 — Deportivo La Coruna 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 49.4% · Implied: 45.0% · Probability edge: +4.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.7%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

La Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Barcelona	8	34	7	+27	24
2	Real Madrid	8	19	8	+11	18
3	Atletico Madrid	8	18	8	+10	19
4	Real Betis	8	14	9	+5	19
5	Sevilla	8	13	12	+1	14
6	Villarreal	8	13	13	0	8
7	Racing Santander	8	13	23	-10	8
8	Alaves	8	12	8	+4	11
9	Deportivo La Coruna	8	12	11	+1	10
10	Real Sociedad	8	12	15	-3	13
11	Espanyol	8	11	11	0	8
12	Levante	7	11	15	-4	6
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	11	16	-5	8
14	Elche	8	11	17	-6	6
15	Celta Vigo	8	8	6	+2	8
16	Osasuna	8	8	18	-10	8
17	Athletic Club	6	7	6	+1	8
18	Valencia	8	6	15	-9	5
19	Getafe	8	4	10	-6	8
20	Malaga	8	4	13	-9	4

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Barcelona	8	16.9	2.8	+14.1	24
2	Real Madrid	8	7.2	2.4	+4.8	18
3	Osasuna	8	8.6	6.2	+2.4	8
4	Alaves	8	6.9	5.7	+1.2	11
5	Racing Santander	8	5.8	4.8	+1.0	8
6	Espanyol	8	3.9	3.0	+0.9	8
7	Real Betis	8	10.1	9.4	+0.7	19
8	Sevilla	8	5.9	6.0	-0.1	14
9	Villarreal	8	8.3	8.5	-0.2	8
10	Levante	7	7.3	7.9	-0.6	6
11	Athletic Club	6	4.1	4.9	-0.8	8
12	Malaga	8	5.1	6.2	-1.1	4
13	Deportivo La Coruna	8	5.0	6.2	-1.2	10
14	Atletico Madrid	8	4.6	5.8	-1.2	19
15	Real Sociedad	8	5.1	7.1	-2.0	13
16	Elche	8	4.0	6.4	-2.4	6
17	Valencia	8	5.4	8.2	-2.8	5
18	Rayo Vallecano	7	3.5	7.0	-3.5	8
19	Celta Vigo	8	2.9	7.3	-4.4	8
20	Getafe	8	2.9	7.5	-4.6	8