Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División / Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon

Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon Statistics & Analysis

Cadiz Cadiz
Oct 11, 2026 - 19:00
0 1.27
1 1.46
xG Accuracy: 62%
Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13235490

Closing Odds 3.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sporting Gijon win · Cadiz 0–1 Sporting Gijon
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.74 percentage points on Sporting Gijon (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sporting Gijon (1X2) by about 12.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Cadiz (1X2) 31.4 43.2 -11.9
Draw (1X2) 28.6 29.3 -0.6
Sporting Gijon (1X2) 40.0 27.5 +12.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.0% on Sporting Gijon (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.5%. The difference — about 12.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us → kto br

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Cadiz (1X2) 2.05 2.1 -2.1
Draw (1X2) 3.1 3.1 -0.7
Sporting Gijon (1X2) 3.75 3.3 +2.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.4% · Draw 28.6% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Cadiz 1.27 — Sporting Gijon 1.46 (total xG ≈ 2.73)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.4% · Implied: 43.1% · Probability edge: +8.3 pts · Est. EV: +16.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.8% · No 43.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 21
2 Almeria 9 7 0 2 21
3 Castellón 9 6 2 1 20
4 Mallorca 9 5 2 2 17
5 Sabadell 9 4 4 1 16
6 Sporting Gijon 9 5 1 3 16
7 Girona 8 4 2 2 14
8 Burgos 8 4 2 2 14
9 Granada CF 8 3 2 3 11
10 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 11
11 Celta de Vigo II 9 3 2 4 11
12 Eldense 9 3 2 4 11
13 Tenerife 8 3 2 3 11
14 Las Palmas 9 3 2 4 11
15 Leganes 9 3 2 4 11
16 FC Andorra 9 3 1 5 10
17 Valladolid 8 2 3 3 9
18 Cordoba 9 3 0 6 9
19 Real Sociedad II 9 2 2 5 8
20 Cadiz 9 1 4 4 7
21 AD Ceuta FC 9 1 2 6 5
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Eibar 8 18 7 +11 21
2 Almeria 9 16 5 +11 21
3 Castellón 9 15 4 +11 20
4 Girona 8 14 8 +6 14
5 Celta de Vigo II 9 14 15 -1 11
6 Cordoba 9 14 20 -6 9
7 Granada CF 8 13 13 0 11
8 FC Andorra 9 13 15 -2 10
9 Las Palmas 9 13 16 -3 11
10 Burgos 8 12 9 +3 14
11 Real Sociedad II 9 12 17 -5 8
12 Mallorca 9 11 4 +7 17
13 Cadiz 9 11 11 0 7
14 Sabadell 9 10 7 +3 16
15 Eldense 9 10 11 -1 11
16 Tenerife 8 10 12 -2 11
17 Sporting Gijon 9 9 8 +1 16
18 Oviedo 8 8 8 0 11
19 Valladolid 8 8 11 -3 9
20 AD Ceuta FC 9 8 20 -12 5
21 Leganes 9 6 14 -8 11
22 Albacete 8 5 15 -10 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Andorra 9 2.6 0.7 +1.9 10
2 Eldense 9 2.9 1.4 +1.5 11
3 Cadiz 9 2.2 1.3 +0.9 7
4 Almeria 9 1.2 0.4 +0.8 21
5 Sabadell 9 1.4 0.9 +0.5 16
6 Mallorca 9 0.9 0.5 +0.4 17
7 Sporting Gijon 9 0.7 0.6 +0.1 16
8 Real Sociedad II 9 1.9 2.0 -0.1 8
9 Las Palmas 9 0.5 0.9 -0.4 11
10 AD Ceuta FC 9 0.9 1.4 -0.5 5
11 Leganes 9 0.4 1.2 -0.8 11
12 Celta de Vigo II 9 2.6 3.5 -0.9 11
13 Cordoba 9 1.4 2.9 -1.5 9
14 Castellón 9 0.7 2.6 -1.9 20
15 Eibar 8 — — — 21
16 Girona 8 — — — 14
17 Burgos 8 — — — 14
18 Granada CF 8 — — — 11
19 Oviedo 8 — — — 11
20 Tenerife 8 — — — 11
21 Valladolid 8 — — — 9
22 Albacete 8 — — — 1
Segunda División Spain. Segunda División Predictions