Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División / Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II Statistics & Analysis

Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon
Oct 04, 2026 - 14:15
3 1.18
2 1.06
xG Accuracy: 47%
Celta de Vigo II Celta de Vigo II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11677624

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sporting Gijon win · Sporting Gijon 3–2 Celta de Vigo II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Celta de Vigo II (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sporting Gijon (1X2) 39.7 54.8 -15.2
Draw (1X2) 31.4 25.9 +5.5
Celta de Vigo II (1X2) 28.9 19.2 +9.7
Over 2.5 goals 38.8 48.6 -9.8
Under 2.5 goals 61.2 51.4 +9.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 61.2% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 51.4%. The difference — about 9.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sporting Gijon (1X2) 1.76 1.76 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.72 3.72 0.0
Celta de Vigo II (1X2) 5.02 5.02 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.0 2.0 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.89 1.89 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 14:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.7% · Draw 31.4% · Away 28.9%
  • xG (showing): Sporting Gijon 1.18 — Celta de Vigo II 1.06 (total xG ≈ 2.24)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 21
2 Castellón 7 6 1 0 19
3 Almeria 8 6 0 2 18
4 Burgos 8 4 2 2 14
5 Girona 7 4 1 2 13
6 Mallorca 7 4 1 2 13
7 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 12
8 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 11
10 Leganes 8 3 2 3 11
11 Las Palmas 7 3 1 3 10
12 Sporting Gijon 7 3 1 3 10
13 Granada CF 7 2 2 3 8
14 Real Sociedad II 7 2 2 3 8
15 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8
16 Celta de Vigo II 7 2 2 3 8
17 Valladolid 7 2 2 3 8
18 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 7
19 FC Andorra 7 2 0 5 6
20 Cordoba 7 2 0 5 6
21 AD Ceuta FC 7 1 1 5 4
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Eibar 8 18 7 +11 21
2 Castellón 7 14 2 +12 19
3 Girona 7 14 8 +6 13
4 Almeria 8 13 5 +8 18
5 Burgos 8 12 9 +3 14
6 FC Andorra 7 12 15 -3 6
7 Cadiz 8 11 10 +1 7
8 Las Palmas 7 10 11 -1 10
9 Granada CF 7 10 11 -1 8
10 Cordoba 7 10 16 -6 6
11 Real Sociedad II 7 9 10 -1 8
12 Mallorca 7 8 3 +5 13
13 Sabadell 7 8 6 +2 12
14 Oviedo 8 8 8 0 11
15 Tenerife 7 8 9 -1 11
16 Eldense 8 8 10 -2 8
17 Celta de Vigo II 7 8 11 -3 8
18 Valladolid 7 6 9 -3 8
19 Leganes 8 6 11 -5 11
20 AD Ceuta FC 7 6 17 -11 4
21 Sporting Gijon 7 5 6 -1 10
22 Albacete 8 5 15 -10 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cadiz 8 1.6 0.6 +1.0 7
2 Celta de Vigo II 7 0.6 1.6 -1.0 8
3 Eibar 8 — — — 21
4 Castellón 7 — — — 19
5 Almeria 8 — — — 18
6 Burgos 8 — — — 14
7 Girona 7 — — — 13
8 Mallorca 7 — — — 13
9 Sabadell 7 — — — 12
10 Oviedo 8 — — — 11
11 Tenerife 7 — — — 11
12 Leganes 8 — — — 11
13 Las Palmas 7 — — — 10
14 Sporting Gijon 7 — — — 10
15 Granada CF 7 — — — 8
16 Real Sociedad II 7 — — — 8
17 Eldense 8 — — — 8
18 Valladolid 7 — — — 8
19 FC Andorra 7 — — — 6
20 Cordoba 7 — — — 6
21 AD Ceuta FC 7 — — — 4
22 Albacete 8 — — — 1
Segunda División Spain. Segunda División Predictions