Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División / Eldense vs Eibar

Eldense vs Eibar Statistics & Analysis

Eldense Eldense
Sep 19, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.03
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 80%
Eibar Eibar
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Eibar Eibar ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8704333

Closing Odds 3.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Eibar win · Eldense 1–2 Eibar
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 4.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Eldense (1X2) 29.4 31.7 -2.3
Draw (1X2) 32.1 30.6 +1.5
Eibar (1X2) 38.5 37.6 +0.8
Over 2.5 goals 38.8 43.4 -4.6
Under 2.5 goals 61.2 56.6 +4.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 61.2% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 56.6%. The difference — about 4.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Eldense (1X2) 3.05 3.05 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.16 3.16 0.0
Eibar (1X2) 2.57 2.57 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.23 2.23 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.71 1.71 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Eldense vs Eibar
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.4% · Draw 32.1% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Eldense 1.03 — Eibar 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.24)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 61.2% · Implied: 55.6% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +9.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 20, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Castellón 6 5 1 0 16
2 Eibar 6 5 0 1 15
3 Mallorca 6 4 1 1 13
4 Girona 6 3 1 2 10
5 Las Palmas 5 3 1 1 10
6 Sporting Gijon 6 3 1 2 10
7 Tenerife 6 3 1 2 10
8 Almeria 5 3 0 2 9
9 Oviedo 5 2 2 1 8
10 Burgos 5 2 2 1 8
11 Real Sociedad II 6 2 2 2 8
12 Granada CF 5 2 2 1 8
13 Sabadell 5 2 2 1 8
14 Leganes 5 2 2 1 8
15 Celta de Vigo II 5 2 1 2 7
16 Cordoba 6 2 0 4 6
17 Eldense 6 1 2 3 5
18 Valladolid 5 1 1 3 4
19 Cadiz 6 0 3 3 3
20 FC Andorra 6 1 0 5 3
21 Albacete 6 0 1 5 1
22 AD Ceuta FC 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Castellón 6 12 2 +10 16
2 Eibar 6 12 4 +8 15
3 Girona 6 12 8 +4 10
4 Cordoba 6 9 13 -4 6
5 FC Andorra 6 9 13 -4 3
6 Mallorca 6 8 2 +6 13
7 Almeria 5 8 4 +4 9
8 Burgos 5 8 6 +2 8
9 Real Sociedad II 6 8 7 +1 8
10 Las Palmas 5 7 6 +1 10
11 Tenerife 6 7 8 -1 10
12 Celta de Vigo II 5 7 8 -1 7
13 Granada CF 5 6 5 +1 8
14 Cadiz 6 6 9 -3 3
15 Sporting Gijon 6 5 4 +1 10
16 Oviedo 5 4 1 +3 8
17 Sabadell 5 4 4 0 8
18 Eldense 6 4 8 -4 5
19 Albacete 6 4 10 -6 1
20 Leganes 5 3 3 0 8
21 Valladolid 5 2 7 -5 4
22 AD Ceuta FC 5 2 15 -13 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cadiz 6 1.6 0.6 +1.0 3
2 Celta de Vigo II 5 0.6 1.6 -1.0 7
3 Castellón 6 — — — 16
4 Eibar 6 — — — 15
5 Mallorca 6 — — — 13
6 Girona 6 — — — 10
7 Las Palmas 5 — — — 10
8 Sporting Gijon 6 — — — 10
9 Tenerife 6 — — — 10
10 Almeria 5 — — — 9
11 Oviedo 5 — — — 8
12 Burgos 5 — — — 8
13 Real Sociedad II 6 — — — 8
14 Granada CF 5 — — — 8
15 Sabadell 5 — — — 8
16 Leganes 5 — — — 8
17 Cordoba 6 — — — 6
18 Eldense 6 — — — 5
19 Valladolid 5 — — — 4
20 FC Andorra 6 — — — 3
21 Albacete 6 — — — 1
22 AD Ceuta FC 5 — — — 0
Segunda División Spain. Segunda División Predictions