Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División / Eldense vs Eibar

Prediction Audit: Eldense vs Eibar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Eldense Eldense
Sep 19, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.03
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 80%
Eibar Eibar

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade Not available

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Eibar Eibar ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  2. FT Full-time result Eibar win · 1–2

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: No prediction record
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8704333

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Eibar win · Eldense 1–2 Eibar
Prediction No prediction record
Decision Grade Not assessed

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Eldense vs Eibar
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Eldense 1.03 — Eibar 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.24)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Cautious / Wait

Outcome: —

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

November 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Almeria 14 10 2 2 32
2 Castellón 13 9 3 1 30
3 Girona 14 7 3 4 24
4 Burgos 14 7 3 4 24
5 Mallorca 13 6 5 2 23
6 Eibar 12 7 2 3 23
7 Granada CF 12 7 2 3 23
8 Sporting Gijon 14 7 2 5 23
9 Oviedo 14 6 3 5 21
10 Cordoba 14 6 2 6 20
11 Las Palmas 13 6 2 5 20
12 Valladolid 14 5 3 6 18
13 Sabadell 13 4 6 3 18
14 Tenerife 12 3 6 3 15
15 Leganes 14 4 3 7 15
16 Eldense 13 4 2 7 14
17 Celta de Vigo II 13 3 4 6 13
18 Real Sociedad II 14 3 4 7 13
19 FC Andorra 13 3 2 8 11
20 Cadiz 13 2 4 7 10
21 Albacete 13 3 1 9 10
22 AD Ceuta FC 13 1 2 10 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Almeria 14 26 11 +15 32
2 Cordoba 14 25 25 0 20
3 Castellón 13 24 5 +19 30
4 Girona 14 24 13 +11 24
5 Valladolid 14 22 21 +1 18
6 Eibar 12 21 14 +7 23
7 Granada CF 12 20 14 +6 23
8 Burgos 14 20 17 +3 24
9 Oviedo 14 20 18 +2 21
10 Las Palmas 13 19 21 -2 20
11 Celta de Vigo II 13 19 25 -6 13
12 Mallorca 13 18 10 +8 23
13 FC Andorra 13 18 24 -6 11
14 Real Sociedad II 14 17 24 -7 13
15 Sporting Gijon 14 16 17 -1 23
16 Cadiz 13 16 18 -2 10
17 Tenerife 12 15 17 -2 15
18 Leganes 14 14 24 -10 15
19 Eldense 13 13 19 -6 14
20 Albacete 13 13 24 -11 10
21 Sabadell 13 12 11 +1 18
22 AD Ceuta FC 13 10 30 -20 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Girona 14 9.6 5.3 +4.3 24
2 Sporting Gijon 14 7.6 4.4 +3.2 23
3 Sabadell 13 5.7 3.0 +2.7 18
4 FC Andorra 13 7.1 4.8 +2.3 11
5 Granada CF 12 5.7 3.4 +2.3 23
6 Valladolid 14 9.2 8.0 +1.2 18
7 Burgos 14 7.3 6.4 +0.9 24
8 Mallorca 13 8.8 8.6 +0.2 23
9 Castellón 13 5.0 4.8 +0.2 30
10 Almeria 14 7.5 7.4 +0.1 32
11 Leganes 14 10.8 10.8 0.0 15
12 Real Sociedad II 14 8.5 8.5 0.0 13
13 Cordoba 14 10.5 10.7 -0.2 20
14 Eldense 13 3.9 4.3 -0.4 14
15 Eibar 12 7.2 7.8 -0.6 23
16 AD Ceuta FC 13 7.5 8.3 -0.8 5
17 Cadiz 13 4.7 5.6 -0.9 10
18 Las Palmas 13 4.8 5.9 -1.1 20
19 Tenerife 12 1.6 3.9 -2.3 15
20 Oviedo 14 9.4 12.1 -2.7 21
21 Albacete 13 3.8 7.8 -4.0 10
22 Celta de Vigo II 13 6.7 10.9 -4.2 13
Segunda División Spain. Segunda División Predictions