Haman vs Jincheon Statistics & Analysis

⚽

Haman

Sep 06, 2026 - 08:00

3 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 58%

⚽

Jincheon

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Haman Haman ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6320415

Closing Odds 1.36

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Haman win · Haman 3–1 Jincheon

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Haman (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Haman (1X2) by about 22.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Haman (1X2)	36.1	14.1	+22.0
Draw (1X2)	29.7	20.8	+8.8
Jincheon (1X2)	34.2	65.1	-30.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	55.8	-7.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	44.2	+7.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Haman (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.1%. The difference — about 22.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Haman (1X2)	6.29	6.29
Draw (1X2)	4.25	4.25
Jincheon (1X2)	1.36	1.36
Over 2.5 goals	1.65	1.65
Under 2.5 goals	2.08	2.08

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Haman; market prices Jincheon instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Haman 1.32 xG vs Jincheon 1.28 → Haman 36.1%
Market: Jincheon ~14.1% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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K4 League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Jinju Citizen	20	16	2	2	50
2	Jincheon	20	11	5	4	38
3	Namyangju	21	10	6	5	36
4	Jungnang Chorus Mustang	20	10	4	6	34
5	Geumsan Insam	21	8	8	5	32
6	Jecheon Citizen	21	7	7	7	28
7	Geoje Citizen	18	8	3	7	27
8	Pyeongchang United	20	8	2	10	26
9	Gijang United	20	8	2	10	26
10	Sejong SA	20	8	2	10	26
11	Haman	19	6	2	11	20
12	Seosan Pioneer	20	4	0	16	12
13	Pyeongtaek Citizen	20	2	5	13	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Jinju Citizen	20	50	16	+34	50
2	Jincheon	20	38	20	+18	38
3	Jungnang Chorus Mustang	20	38	23	+15	34
4	Geumsan Insam	21	33	25	+8	32
5	Geoje Citizen	18	33	26	+7	27
6	Namyangju	21	30	26	+4	36
7	Sejong SA	20	29	40	-11	26
8	Gijang United	20	28	36	-8	26
9	Pyeongchang United	20	27	31	-4	26
10	Jecheon Citizen	21	26	31	-5	28
11	Haman	19	22	32	-10	20
12	Seosan Pioneer	20	22	46	-24	12
13	Pyeongtaek Citizen	20	20	44	-24	11