Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 1 / Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Jagiellonia II

Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Jagiellonia II Statistics & Analysis

Ząbkovia Ząbki Ząbkovia Ząbki
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.23
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 68%
Jagiellonia II Jagiellonia II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jagiellonia II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13209895

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Ząbkovia Ząbki 2–2 Jagiellonia II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 1
  • Fixture: Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Jagiellonia II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.23 — Jagiellonia II 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 32.4% · Probability edge: +19.4 pts · Est. EV: +49.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 1 III Liga - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Weszlo 12 9 2 1 29
2 Wigry Suwałki 12 7 4 1 25
3 Pelikan Łowicz 12 7 2 3 23
4 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 12 6 3 3 21
5 Wisła Płock II 12 6 3 3 21
6 Ząbkovia Ząbki 12 6 2 4 20
7 Swit 12 6 2 4 20
8 Olimpia Zambrów 12 5 2 5 17
9 Jagiellonia II 12 4 4 4 16
10 Olimpia Elbląg 12 5 1 6 16
11 Warta Sieradz 11 4 3 4 15
12 Widzew II 11 4 2 5 14
13 ŁKS Łódź II 12 4 2 6 14
14 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 12 4 1 7 13
15 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 12 3 3 6 12
16 Mławianka Mława 12 3 1 8 10
17 Troszyn 12 2 4 6 10
18 Łomża 12 0 3 9 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 12 28 22 +6 21
2 Weszlo 12 26 10 +16 29
3 Olimpia Zambrów 12 26 27 -1 17
4 Wisła Płock II 12 24 19 +5 21
5 Ząbkovia Ząbki 12 24 20 +4 20
6 Jagiellonia II 12 24 23 +1 16
7 ŁKS Łódź II 12 23 24 -1 14
8 Mławianka Mława 12 23 34 -11 10
9 Wigry Suwałki 12 22 11 +11 25
10 Swit 12 22 19 +3 20
11 Pelikan Łowicz 12 21 14 +7 23
12 Widzew II 11 21 20 +1 14
13 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 12 21 26 -5 13
14 Warta Sieradz 11 19 19 0 15
15 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 12 19 24 -5 12
16 Olimpia Elbląg 12 18 21 -3 16
17 Troszyn 12 14 26 -12 10
18 Łomża 12 12 28 -16 3
III Liga - Group 1 Poland. III Liga - Group 1 Predictions