Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 1 / Łomża vs Olimpia Elbląg

Łomża vs Olimpia Elbląg Statistics & Analysis

Łomża Łomża
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.57
2 1.03
xG Accuracy: 50%
Olimpia Elbląg Olimpia Elbląg
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Łomża Olimpia Elbląg ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11242004

Closing Odds 2.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Olimpia Elbląg win · Łomża 0–2 Olimpia Elbląg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 5.26 percentage points on Olimpia Elbląg (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE10.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Łomża (1X2) by about 15.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Łomża (1X2) 48.3 33.3 +15.0
Draw (1X2) 28.4 25.7 +2.7
Olimpia Elbląg (1X2) 23.3 41.0 -17.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 58.5 -10.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.5 +10.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.3% on Łomża (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.3%. The difference — about 15.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
Łomża (1X2) 2.32 2.67 -5.0
Draw (1X2) 3.43 3.46 -0.2
Olimpia Elbląg (1X2) 2.49 2.17 +5.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.56 1.56 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.2 2.2 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 1
  • Fixture: Łomża vs Olimpia Elbląg
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Away 23.3%
  • xG (showing): Łomża 1.57 — Olimpia Elbląg 1.03 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 47.5% · Implied: 38.0% · Probability edge: +9.5 pts · Est. EV: +16.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 1 III Liga - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Weszlo 10 8 2 0 26
2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 6 2 2 20
3 Wigry Suwałki 10 5 4 1 19
4 Pelikan Łowicz 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wisła Płock II 10 5 3 2 18
6 Swit 10 5 2 3 17
7 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 5 1 4 16
8 Jagiellonia II 10 4 3 3 15
9 Warta Sieradz 9 4 2 3 14
10 Widzew II 9 4 1 4 13
11 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 4 1 5 13
12 ŁKS Łódź II 10 3 2 5 11
13 Olimpia Zambrów 10 3 2 5 11
14 Olimpia Elbląg 10 3 1 6 10
15 Mławianka Mława 10 3 1 6 10
16 Troszyn 10 1 4 5 7
17 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 10 1 3 6 6
18 Łomża 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 26 17 +9 20
2 Weszlo 10 23 7 +16 26
3 Wisła Płock II 10 22 17 +5 18
4 Jagiellonia II 10 22 20 +2 15
5 Widzew II 9 20 17 +3 13
6 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 20 21 -1 13
7 Olimpia Zambrów 10 20 26 -6 11
8 Mławianka Mława 10 20 28 -8 10
9 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 19 18 +1 16
10 Wigry Suwałki 10 18 10 +8 19
11 Warta Sieradz 9 17 15 +2 14
12 Swit 10 16 10 +6 17
13 Pelikan Łowicz 10 16 12 +4 19
14 ŁKS Łódź II 10 16 19 -3 11
15 Olimpia Elbląg 10 14 20 -6 10
16 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 10 14 21 -7 6
17 Troszyn 10 12 24 -12 7
18 Łomża 10 10 23 -13 3
III Liga - Group 1 Poland. III Liga - Group 1 Predictions