Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 1 / Pelikan Łowicz vs Łomża

Pelikan Łowicz vs Łomża Statistics & Analysis

Pelikan Łowicz Pelikan Łowicz
Aug 01, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.06
2 1.54
xG Accuracy: 52%
Łomża Łomża
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Łomża Pelikan Łowicz ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 04:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1820226

Closing Odds 2.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Pelikan Łowicz win · Pelikan Łowicz 3–2 Łomża
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Łomża (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 15.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Pelikan Łowicz (1X2) 24.6 36.4 -11.8
Draw (1X2) 28.7 23.1 +5.6
Łomża (1X2) 46.8 40.6 +6.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 63.3 -15.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 36.7 +15.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.7%. The difference — about 15.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Pelikan Łowicz (1X2) 2.39 2.39 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.77 3.77 0.0
Łomża (1X2) 2.14 2.14 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.42 1.42 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.45 2.45 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 1
  • Fixture: Pelikan Łowicz vs Łomża
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.6% · Draw 28.7% · Away 46.8%
  • xG (showing): Pelikan Łowicz 1.06 — Łomża 1.54 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 47.1% · Implied: 34.6% · Probability edge: +12.5 pts · Est. EV: +35.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
III Liga - Group 1 III Liga - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Weszlo 9 8 1 0 25
2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 6 2 2 20
3 Wigry Suwałki 10 5 4 1 19
4 Pelikan Łowicz 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wisła Płock II 10 5 3 2 18
6 Swit 10 5 2 3 17
7 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 5 1 4 16
8 Jagiellonia II 10 4 3 3 15
9 Warta Sieradz 9 4 2 3 14
10 Widzew II 9 4 1 4 13
11 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 4 1 5 13
12 Olimpia Zambrów 10 3 2 5 11
13 ŁKS Łódź II 9 3 1 5 10
14 Olimpia Elbląg 10 3 1 6 10
15 Mławianka Mława 10 3 1 6 10
16 Troszyn 9 1 3 5 6
17 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 1 2 6 5
18 Łomża 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 26 17 +9 20
2 Weszlo 9 22 6 +16 25
3 Wisła Płock II 10 22 17 +5 18
4 Jagiellonia II 10 22 20 +2 15
5 Widzew II 9 20 17 +3 13
6 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 20 21 -1 13
7 Olimpia Zambrów 10 20 26 -6 11
8 Mławianka Mława 10 20 28 -8 10
9 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 19 18 +1 16
10 Wigry Suwałki 10 18 10 +8 19
11 Warta Sieradz 9 17 15 +2 14
12 Swit 10 16 10 +6 17
13 Pelikan Łowicz 10 16 12 +4 19
14 ŁKS Łódź II 9 15 18 -3 10
15 Olimpia Elbląg 10 14 20 -6 10
16 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 13 20 -7 5
17 Troszyn 9 11 23 -12 6
18 Łomża 10 10 23 -13 3
III Liga - Group 1 Poland. III Liga - Group 1 Predictions