Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Gedania Gdansk vs Victoria Września

Gedania Gdansk vs Victoria Września Statistics & Analysis

Gedania Gdansk Gedania Gdansk
Oct 03, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.23
0 1.37
xG Accuracy: 49%
Victoria Września Victoria Września
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Victoria Września Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11219952

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Gedania Gdansk 0–0 Victoria Września
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Gedania Gdansk vs Victoria Września
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Gedania Gdansk 1.23 — Victoria Września 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.2% · Probability edge: +12.6 pts · Est. EV: +29.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polonia Środa 11 8 3 0 27
2 Luzino 11 8 1 2 25
3 Kluczevia Stargard 10 6 1 3 19
4 Stargard Szczeciński 11 5 3 3 18
5 Wda Świecie 10 5 3 2 18
6 Kalisz 11 4 5 2 17
7 Lech Poznań II 9 4 3 2 15
8 Bałtyk Koszalin 11 4 3 4 15
9 Flota Świnoujście 10 4 2 4 14
10 Unia Swarzędz 11 4 1 6 13
11 Grom Nowy Staw 11 4 1 6 13
12 Noteć Czarnków 10 4 1 5 13
13 Chemik Bydgoszcz 11 2 6 3 12
14 Gedania Gdansk 11 2 5 4 11
15 Elana Toruń 11 2 4 5 10
16 Kotwica Kórnik 11 3 1 7 10
17 Victoria Września 11 1 5 5 8
18 Lipno Stęszew 11 1 2 8 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Polonia Środa 11 33 16 +17 27
2 Luzino 11 31 13 +18 25
3 Grom Nowy Staw 11 28 28 0 13
4 Stargard Szczeciński 11 27 19 +8 18
5 Gedania Gdansk 11 23 24 -1 11
6 Unia Swarzędz 11 20 19 +1 13
7 Kluczevia Stargard 10 19 16 +3 19
8 Kotwica Kórnik 11 18 32 -14 10
9 Lech Poznań II 9 17 15 +2 15
10 Chemik Bydgoszcz 11 17 21 -4 12
11 Kalisz 11 16 15 +1 17
12 Elana Toruń 11 16 22 -6 10
13 Wda Świecie 10 15 14 +1 18
14 Bałtyk Koszalin 11 15 15 0 15
15 Noteć Czarnków 10 15 15 0 13
16 Flota Świnoujście 10 15 17 -2 14
17 Victoria Września 11 11 23 -12 8
18 Lipno Stęszew 11 11 23 -12 5
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions