Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Elana Toruń vs Luzino

Elana Toruń vs Luzino Statistics & Analysis

Elana Toruń Elana Toruń
Oct 03, 2026 - 11:00
3 1.11
1 1.49
xG Accuracy: 52%
Luzino Luzino
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Luzino Elana Toruń ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11221548

Closing Odds 1.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Elana Toruń win · Elana Toruń 3–1 Luzino
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Elana Toruń (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Elana Toruń (1X2) 26.7 17.9 +8.8
Draw (1X2) 29.0 20.9 +8.1
Luzino (1X2) 44.3 61.2 -16.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 64.2 -16.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 35.8 +16.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.8%. The difference — about 16.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Elana Toruń (1X2) 4.97 4.97 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.24 4.24 0.0
Luzino (1X2) 1.45 1.45 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.42 1.42 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.55 2.55 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Elana Toruń vs Luzino
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.3%
  • xG (showing): Elana Toruń 1.11 — Luzino 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Elana Toruń & Luzino!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Luzino 10 8 1 1 25
2 Polonia Środa 10 7 3 0 24
3 Kluczevia Stargard 10 6 1 3 19
4 Wda Świecie 9 5 3 1 18
5 Kalisz 10 4 5 1 17
6 Stargard Szczeciński 10 4 3 3 15
7 Lech Poznań II 9 4 3 2 15
8 Flota Świnoujście 10 4 2 4 14
9 Grom Nowy Staw 10 4 1 5 13
10 Noteć Czarnków 10 4 1 5 13
11 Bałtyk Koszalin 10 3 3 4 12
12 Gedania Gdansk 10 2 4 4 10
13 Unia Swarzędz 10 3 1 6 10
14 Kotwica Kórnik 10 3 1 6 10
15 Chemik Bydgoszcz 10 1 6 3 9
16 Elana Toruń 10 1 4 5 7
17 Victoria Września 10 1 4 5 7
18 Lipno Stęszew 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 10 30 10 +20 25
2 Polonia Środa 10 29 16 +13 24
3 Grom Nowy Staw 10 27 25 +2 13
4 Gedania Gdansk 10 23 24 -1 10
5 Stargard Szczeciński 10 22 19 +3 15
6 Kluczevia Stargard 10 19 16 +3 19
7 Kotwica Kórnik 10 18 25 -7 10
8 Lech Poznań II 9 17 15 +2 15
9 Kalisz 10 16 10 +6 17
10 Chemik Bydgoszcz 10 16 21 -5 9
11 Wda Świecie 9 15 10 +5 18
12 Noteć Czarnków 10 15 15 0 13
13 Flota Świnoujście 10 15 17 -2 14
14 Unia Swarzędz 10 13 19 -6 10
15 Elana Toruń 10 13 21 -8 7
16 Bałtyk Koszalin 10 12 14 -2 12
17 Lipno Stęszew 10 11 22 -11 5
18 Victoria Września 10 11 23 -12 7
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions