Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Lech Poznań II vs Lipno Stęszew

Lech Poznań II vs Lipno Stęszew Statistics & Analysis

Lech Poznań II Lech Poznań II
Aug 19, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.31
0 1.29
xG Accuracy: 64%
Lipno Stęszew Lipno Stęszew
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lech Poznań II Lech Poznań II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 13, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3815759

Closing Odds 1.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Lech Poznań II win · Lech Poznań II 1–0 Lipno Stęszew
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Lipno Stęszew (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lech Poznań II (1X2) 35.6 58.5 -22.9
Draw (1X2) 29.7 20.5 +9.2
Lipno Stęszew (1X2) 34.7 21.1 +13.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.7 -18.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.3 +18.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.3%. The difference — about 18.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lech Poznań II (1X2) 1.52 1.52 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.34 4.34 0.0
Lipno Stęszew (1X2) 4.22 4.22 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.37 1.37 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.74 2.74 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Lech Poznań II vs Lipno Stęszew
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-19 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Lech Poznań II 1.31 — Lipno Stęszew 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polonia Środa 7 6 1 0 19
2 Wda Świecie 7 5 2 0 17
3 Luzino 7 5 1 1 16
4 Flota Świnoujście 7 4 1 2 13
5 Kluczevia Stargard 7 4 1 2 13
6 Kalisz 7 3 3 1 12
7 Noteć Czarnków 7 4 0 3 12
8 Lech Poznań II 7 3 2 2 11
9 Stargard Szczeciński 7 3 1 3 10
10 Bałtyk Koszalin 7 2 3 2 9
11 Grom Nowy Staw 7 2 1 4 7
12 Kotwica Kórnik 7 2 1 4 7
13 Unia Swarzędz 7 2 1 4 7
14 Gedania Gdansk 7 1 3 3 6
15 Chemik Bydgoszcz 7 1 3 3 6
16 Elana Toruń 7 1 2 4 5
17 Victoria Września 7 1 1 5 4
18 Lipno Stęszew 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Polonia Środa 7 23 11 +12 19
2 Luzino 7 20 8 +12 16
3 Grom Nowy Staw 7 18 19 -1 7
4 Stargard Szczeciński 7 16 15 +1 10
5 Kluczevia Stargard 7 15 13 +2 13
6 Lech Poznań II 7 15 14 +1 11
7 Gedania Gdansk 7 15 19 -4 6
8 Flota Świnoujście 7 14 9 +5 13
9 Noteć Czarnków 7 14 11 +3 12
10 Wda Świecie 7 13 7 +6 17
11 Kalisz 7 13 8 +5 12
12 Kotwica Kórnik 7 12 15 -3 7
13 Chemik Bydgoszcz 7 10 15 -5 6
14 Elana Toruń 7 10 17 -7 5
15 Bałtyk Koszalin 7 8 9 -1 9
16 Unia Swarzędz 7 7 12 -5 7
17 Lipno Stęszew 7 7 16 -9 1
18 Victoria Września 7 7 19 -12 4
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions