Bałtyk Koszalin vs Polonia Środa Statistics & Analysis

Bałtyk Koszalin

Aug 01, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.27

3 1.33

xG Accuracy: 45%

Polonia Środa

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Polonia Środa Polonia Środa ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 04:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1816326

Closing Odds 1.7

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Polonia Środa win · Bałtyk Koszalin 0–3 Polonia Środa

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Bałtyk Koszalin (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Bałtyk Koszalin (1X2)	33.8	24.0	+9.8
Draw (1X2)	29.6	23.1	+6.6
Polonia Środa (1X2)	36.6	52.9	-16.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	60.9	-12.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	39.1	+12.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.1%. The difference — about 12.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Bałtyk Koszalin (1X2)	3.75	3.75
Draw (1X2)	3.9	3.9
Polonia Środa (1X2)	1.7	1.7
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	2.38

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: III Liga - Group 2
Fixture: Bałtyk Koszalin vs Polonia Środa
Kickoff: 2026-08-01 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
xG (showing): Bałtyk Koszalin 1.27 — Polonia Środa 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	9	7	2	0	23
2	Luzino	9	7	1	1	22
3	Kluczevia Stargard	9	6	1	2	19
4	Wda Świecie	9	5	3	1	18
5	Lech Poznań II	9	4	3	2	15
6	Kalisz	9	3	5	1	14
7	Stargard Szczeciński	9	4	2	3	14
8	Flota Świnoujście	9	4	2	3	14
9	Noteć Czarnków	9	4	1	4	13
10	Gedania Gdansk	9	2	4	3	10
11	Grom Nowy Staw	9	3	1	5	10
12	Kotwica Kórnik	9	3	1	5	10
13	Bałtyk Koszalin	9	2	3	4	9
14	Chemik Bydgoszcz	9	1	5	3	8
15	Unia Swarzędz	9	2	1	6	7
16	Elana Toruń	9	1	3	5	6
17	Victoria Września	9	1	3	5	6
18	Lipno Stęszew	9	1	1	7	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Luzino	9	28	10	+18	22
2	Polonia Środa	9	27	14	+13	23
3	Grom Nowy Staw	9	24	24	0	10
4	Gedania Gdansk	9	22	21	+1	10
5	Kluczevia Stargard	9	19	15	+4	19
6	Stargard Szczeciński	9	19	16	+3	14
7	Lech Poznań II	9	17	15	+2	15
8	Kotwica Kórnik	9	17	22	-5	10
9	Wda Świecie	9	15	10	+5	18
10	Kalisz	9	15	10	+5	14
11	Noteć Czarnków	9	15	13	+2	13
12	Flota Świnoujście	9	15	15	0	14
13	Chemik Bydgoszcz	9	13	18	-5	8
14	Unia Swarzędz	9	11	19	-8	7
15	Elana Toruń	9	11	19	-8	6
16	Lipno Stęszew	9	10	21	-11	4
17	Victoria Września	9	10	22	-12	6
18	Bałtyk Koszalin	9	9	13	-4	9