Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Polonia Nysa vs Miedź Legnica II

Polonia Nysa vs Miedź Legnica II Statistics & Analysis

Polonia Nysa Polonia Nysa
Oct 02, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.23
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 79%
Miedź Legnica II Miedź Legnica II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Miedź Legnica II Miedź Legnica II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10974974

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Miedź Legnica II win · Polonia Nysa 1–2 Miedź Legnica II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Polonia Nysa (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 15.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Polonia Nysa (1X2) 31.9 29.4 +2.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 23.4 +6.2
Miedź Legnica II (1X2) 38.5 47.2 -8.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 63.5 -15.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 36.5 +15.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.5%. The difference — about 15.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Polonia Nysa (1X2) 3.01 3.01 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.79 3.79 0.0
Miedź Legnica II (1X2) 1.88 1.88 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.44 1.44 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.5 2.5 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Polonia Nysa vs Miedź Legnica II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Polonia Nysa 1.23 — Miedź Legnica II 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 31.2% · Probability edge: +20.6 pts · Est. EV: +65.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sparta Katowice 10 7 2 1 23
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 11 6 5 0 23
3 Odra Bytom Odrzański 10 7 2 1 23
4 Barycz Sułów 10 6 2 2 20
5 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 5 1 3 16
6 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 10 4 3 3 15
7 Górnik Polkowice 11 4 3 4 15
8 Miedź Legnica II 11 4 2 5 14
9 ROW Rybnik 10 4 2 4 14
10 Stilon Gorzów 10 3 4 3 13
11 Warta Gorzów 10 3 4 3 13
12 Kluczbork 10 4 0 6 12
13 Stal Brzeg 10 3 2 5 11
14 Goczałkowice Zdrój 10 3 2 5 11
15 Rakow II 9 2 3 4 9
16 Polonia Nysa 11 2 2 7 8
17 Ślęza Wrocław 10 2 1 7 7
18 Carina Gubin 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Miedź Legnica II 11 25 21 +4 14
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 11 23 13 +10 23
3 ROW Rybnik 10 22 18 +4 14
4 Górnik Polkowice 11 19 18 +1 15
5 Sparta Katowice 10 18 6 +12 23
6 Stal Brzeg 10 18 16 +2 11
7 Barycz Sułów 10 17 11 +6 20
8 Stilon Gorzów 10 17 14 +3 13
9 Ślęza Wrocław 10 15 26 -11 7
10 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 14 9 +5 16
11 Odra Bytom Odrzański 10 12 4 +8 23
12 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 10 12 7 +5 15
13 Rakow II 9 12 17 -5 9
14 Polonia Nysa 11 12 24 -12 8
15 Goczałkowice Zdrój 10 11 15 -4 11
16 Warta Gorzów 10 10 16 -6 13
17 Kluczbork 10 10 17 -7 12
18 Carina Gubin 10 7 22 -15 5
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions