Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Stal Brzeg vs Carina Gubin

Stal Brzeg vs Carina Gubin Statistics & Analysis

Stal Brzeg Stal Brzeg
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.20
1 1.40
xG Accuracy: 64%
Carina Gubin Carina Gubin
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Carina Gubin Carina Gubin ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11232181

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Carina Gubin win · Stal Brzeg 0–1 Carina Gubin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Stal Brzeg vs Carina Gubin
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Stal Brzeg 1.2 — Carina Gubin 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sparta Katowice 11 7 3 1 24
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 11 6 5 0 23
3 Odra Bytom Odrzański 11 7 2 2 23
4 Barycz Sułów 11 6 2 3 20
5 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 10 6 1 3 19
6 ROW Rybnik 11 5 2 4 17
7 Stilon Gorzów 11 4 4 3 16
8 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 11 4 3 4 15
9 Górnik Polkowice 11 4 3 4 15
10 Miedź Legnica II 11 4 2 5 14
11 Warta Gorzów 11 3 5 3 14
12 Kluczbork 10 4 0 6 12
13 Stal Brzeg 11 3 2 6 11
14 Goczałkowice Zdrój 11 3 2 6 11
15 Ślęza Wrocław 11 3 1 7 10
16 Rakow II 9 2 3 4 9
17 Polonia Nysa 11 2 2 7 8
18 Carina Gubin 11 2 2 7 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Miedź Legnica II 11 25 21 +4 14
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 11 23 13 +10 23
3 ROW Rybnik 11 23 18 +5 17
4 Sparta Katowice 11 19 7 +12 24
5 Stilon Gorzów 11 19 15 +4 16
6 Górnik Polkowice 11 19 18 +1 15
7 Barycz Sułów 11 18 13 +5 20
8 Stal Brzeg 11 18 17 +1 11
9 Ślęza Wrocław 11 17 26 -9 10
10 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 10 15 9 +6 19
11 Odra Bytom Odrzański 11 12 5 +7 23
12 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 11 12 9 +3 15
13 Rakow II 9 12 17 -5 9
14 Polonia Nysa 11 12 24 -12 8
15 Goczałkowice Zdrój 11 11 16 -5 11
16 Warta Gorzów 11 11 17 -6 14
17 Kluczbork 10 10 17 -7 12
18 Carina Gubin 11 8 22 -14 8
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions