Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzów

Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzów Statistics & Analysis

Sparta Katowice Sparta Katowice
Oct 03, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Warta Gorzów Warta Gorzów
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sparta Katowice Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11219917

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Sparta Katowice 1–1 Warta Gorzów
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Warta Gorzów (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Warta Gorzów (1X2) by about 16.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sparta Katowice (1X2) 36.1 58.8 -22.7
Draw (1X2) 29.7 23.2 +6.4
Warta Gorzów (1X2) 34.2 18.0 +16.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.3 -6.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.7 +6.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Warta Gorzów (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.0%. The difference — about 16.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sparta Katowice (1X2) 1.51 1.51 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.82 3.82 0.0
Warta Gorzów (1X2) 4.94 4.94 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.69 1.69 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.01 2.01 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzów
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Sparta Katowice 1.32 — Warta Gorzów 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sparta Katowice 10 7 2 1 23
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 11 6 5 0 23
3 Odra Bytom Odrzański 10 7 2 1 23
4 Barycz Sułów 10 6 2 2 20
5 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 5 1 3 16
6 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 10 4 3 3 15
7 Górnik Polkowice 11 4 3 4 15
8 Miedź Legnica II 11 4 2 5 14
9 ROW Rybnik 10 4 2 4 14
10 Stilon Gorzów 10 3 4 3 13
11 Warta Gorzów 10 3 4 3 13
12 Kluczbork 10 4 0 6 12
13 Stal Brzeg 10 3 2 5 11
14 Goczałkowice Zdrój 10 3 2 5 11
15 Rakow II 9 2 3 4 9
16 Polonia Nysa 11 2 2 7 8
17 Ślęza Wrocław 10 2 1 7 7
18 Carina Gubin 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Miedź Legnica II 11 25 21 +4 14
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 11 23 13 +10 23
3 ROW Rybnik 10 22 18 +4 14
4 Górnik Polkowice 11 19 18 +1 15
5 Sparta Katowice 10 18 6 +12 23
6 Stal Brzeg 10 18 16 +2 11
7 Barycz Sułów 10 17 11 +6 20
8 Stilon Gorzów 10 17 14 +3 13
9 Ślęza Wrocław 10 15 26 -11 7
10 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 14 9 +5 16
11 Odra Bytom Odrzański 10 12 4 +8 23
12 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 10 12 7 +5 15
13 Rakow II 9 12 17 -5 9
14 Polonia Nysa 11 12 24 -12 8
15 Goczałkowice Zdrój 10 11 15 -4 11
16 Warta Gorzów 10 10 16 -6 13
17 Kluczbork 10 10 17 -7 12
18 Carina Gubin 10 7 22 -15 5
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions