Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Kluczbork

Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Kluczbork Statistics & Analysis

Odra Bytom Odrzański Odra Bytom Odrzański
Aug 15, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.07
0 1.53
xG Accuracy: 64%
Kluczbork Kluczbork
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kluczbork Odra Bytom Odrzański ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3365548

Closing Odds 2.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Odra Bytom Odrzański win · Odra Bytom Odrzański 1–0 Kluczbork
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Kluczbork (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Kluczbork (1X2) by about 12.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Odra Bytom Odrzański (1X2) 24.9 40.2 -15.2
Draw (1X2) 28.7 26.3 +2.5
Kluczbork (1X2) 46.3 33.5 +12.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 56.1 -8.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 43.9 +8.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 46.3% on Kluczbork (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.5%. The difference — about 12.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Odra Bytom Odrzański (1X2) 2.21 2.21 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.38 3.38 0.0
Kluczbork (1X2) 2.65 2.65 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.64 1.64 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.1 2.1 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Kluczbork
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Away 46.3%
  • xG (showing): Odra Bytom Odrzański 1.07 — Kluczbork 1.53 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 46.9% · Implied: 40.0% · Probability edge: +6.9 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Odra Bytom Odrzański & Kluczbork!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 6 3 0 21
2 Sparta Katowice 9 6 2 1 20
3 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 6 2 1 20
4 Barycz Sułów 9 6 1 2 19
5 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 5 1 3 16
6 Górnik Polkowice 9 4 2 3 14
7 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 3 3 3 12
8 Kluczbork 9 4 0 5 12
9 Warta Gorzów 9 3 3 3 12
10 Miedź Legnica II 9 3 2 4 11
11 ROW Rybnik 9 3 2 4 11
12 Stal Brzeg 9 3 2 4 11
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 3 2 4 11
14 Stilon Gorzów 9 2 4 3 10
15 Rakow II 9 2 3 4 9
16 Ślęza Wrocław 9 2 0 7 6
17 Polonia Nysa 9 1 2 6 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Miedź Legnica II 9 23 18 +5 11
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 19 9 +10 21
3 ROW Rybnik 9 18 15 +3 11
4 Górnik Polkowice 9 18 16 +2 14
5 Sparta Katowice 9 16 6 +10 20
6 Stal Brzeg 9 15 12 +3 11
7 Barycz Sułów 9 14 8 +6 19
8 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 14 9 +5 16
9 Stilon Gorzów 9 14 13 +1 10
10 Ślęza Wrocław 9 14 25 -11 6
11 Rakow II 9 12 17 -5 9
12 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 11 4 +7 20
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 11 13 -2 11
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 10 7 +3 12
15 Kluczbork 9 9 14 -5 12
16 Warta Gorzów 9 9 15 -6 12
17 Polonia Nysa 9 8 21 -13 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 6 19 -13 5
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions