Hetman Zamosc vs Czarni Połaniec Statistics & Analysis

Hetman Zamosc

Oct 11, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.26

0 1.34

xG Accuracy: 64%

Czarni Połaniec

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Czarni Połaniec Hetman Zamosc ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13205856

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hetman Zamosc win · Hetman Zamosc 1–0 Czarni Połaniec

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: III Liga - Group 4
Fixture: Hetman Zamosc vs Czarni Połaniec
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Hetman Zamosc 1.26 — Czarni Połaniec 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

III Liga - Group 4 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	11	8	3	0	27
2	KSZO 1929	12	6	5	1	23
3	Wisłoka Dębica	11	7	1	3	22
4	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	6	2	4	20
5	Naprzód	11	6	2	3	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	11	6	2	3	20
7	Jarosław	12	5	2	5	17
8	Wisła Kraków II	12	4	4	4	16
9	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	14
10	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	14
12	Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	14
13	Sokół Kolb.	11	2	7	2	13
14	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	12
15	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	12	3	3	6	12
16	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	8
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	12	2	2	8	8

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Jarosław	12	28	22	+6	17
2	Naprzód	11	27	21	+6	20
3	Korona Kielce II	12	27	27	0	14
4	KSZO 1929	12	21	9	+12	23
5	Hetman Zamosc	11	20	20	0	14
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	19	12	+7	20
7	Chełmianka Chełm	11	18	5	+13	27
8	Czarni Połaniec	11	18	16	+2	20
9	Busko-Zdroj	12	17	26	-9	14
10	Wisłoka Dębica	11	16	13	+3	22
11	Wisła Kraków II	12	15	17	-2	16
12	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	15	19	-4	14
13	Star Starachowice	11	13	17	-4	11
14	Moravia Morawica	11	13	22	-9	8
15	Sokół Kolb.	11	12	12	0	13
16	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	12	12	22	-10	8
17	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	12	11	15	-4	12
18	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	12	10	17	-7	12