Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Sokół Kolb. vs Moravia Morawica

Sokół Kolb. vs Moravia Morawica Statistics & Analysis

Sokół Kolb. Sokół Kolb.
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30
2 1.33
2 1.27
xG Accuracy: 68%
⚽
Moravia Morawica
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sokół Kolb. Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11236468

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sokół Kolb. 2–2 Moravia Morawica
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Sokół Kolb. vs Moravia Morawica
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Sokół Kolb. 1.33 — Moravia Morawica 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 12 9 3 0 30
2 KSZO 1929 12 6 5 1 23
3 Naprzód 12 7 2 3 23
4 Wisłoka Dębica 12 7 2 3 23
5 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 12 6 2 4 20
6 Czarni Połaniec 12 6 2 4 20
7 Jarosław 12 5 2 5 17
8 Hetman Zamosc 12 4 5 3 17
9 Wisła Kraków II 12 4 4 4 16
10 Korona Kielce II 12 4 2 6 14
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 12 4 2 6 14
12 Busko-Zdroj 12 4 2 6 14
13 Sokół Kolb. 12 2 7 3 13
14 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 12 3 3 6 12
15 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 12 3 3 6 12
16 Star Starachowice 12 2 5 5 11
17 Moravia Morawica 12 2 3 7 9
18 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 12 2 2 8 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Naprzód 12 28 21 +7 23
2 Jarosław 12 28 22 +6 17
3 Korona Kielce II 12 27 27 0 14
4 KSZO 1929 12 21 9 +12 23
5 Hetman Zamosc 12 21 20 +1 17
6 Chełmianka Chełm 12 20 6 +14 30
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 12 19 12 +7 20
8 Czarni Połaniec 12 18 17 +1 20
9 Busko-Zdroj 12 17 26 -9 14
10 Wisłoka Dębica 12 16 13 +3 23
11 Wisła Kraków II 12 15 17 -2 16
12 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 12 15 19 -4 14
13 Star Starachowice 12 14 19 -5 11
14 Moravia Morawica 12 13 22 -9 9
15 Sokół Kolb. 12 12 13 -1 13
16 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 12 12 22 -10 8
17 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 12 11 15 -4 12
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 12 10 17 -7 12
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions