Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Jarosław vs Naprzód

Jarosław vs Naprzód Statistics & Analysis

Jarosław Jarosław
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.36
3 1.24
xG Accuracy: 56%
Naprzód Naprzód
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Jarosław Naprzód ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11236469

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Naprzód win · Jarosław 1–3 Naprzód
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Jarosław vs Naprzód
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Jarosław 1.36 — Naprzód 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 11 8 3 0 27
2 KSZO 1929 12 6 5 1 23
3 Wisłoka Dębica 11 7 1 3 22
4 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 12 6 2 4 20
5 Naprzód 11 6 2 3 20
6 Czarni Połaniec 11 6 2 3 20
7 Jarosław 12 5 2 5 17
8 Wisła Kraków II 12 4 4 4 16
9 Korona Kielce II 12 4 2 6 14
10 Hetman Zamosc 11 3 5 3 14
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 12 4 2 6 14
12 Busko-Zdroj 12 4 2 6 14
13 Sokół Kolb. 11 2 7 2 13
14 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 12 3 3 6 12
15 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 12 3 3 6 12
16 Star Starachowice 11 2 5 4 11
17 Moravia Morawica 11 2 2 7 8
18 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 12 2 2 8 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jarosław 12 28 22 +6 17
2 Naprzód 11 27 21 +6 20
3 Korona Kielce II 12 27 27 0 14
4 KSZO 1929 12 21 9 +12 23
5 Hetman Zamosc 11 20 20 0 14
6 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 12 19 12 +7 20
7 Chełmianka Chełm 11 18 5 +13 27
8 Czarni Połaniec 11 18 16 +2 20
9 Busko-Zdroj 12 17 26 -9 14
10 Wisłoka Dębica 11 16 13 +3 22
11 Wisła Kraków II 12 15 17 -2 16
12 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 12 15 19 -4 14
13 Star Starachowice 11 13 17 -4 11
14 Moravia Morawica 11 13 22 -9 8
15 Sokół Kolb. 11 12 12 0 13
16 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 12 12 22 -10 8
17 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 12 11 15 -4 12
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 12 10 17 -7 12
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions