Czarni Połaniec vs KSZO 1929 Statistics & Analysis

Czarni Połaniec

Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30

1 1.25

1 1.35

xG Accuracy: 85%

KSZO 1929

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 KSZO 1929 Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11236406

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Czarni Połaniec 1–1 KSZO 1929

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: III Liga - Group 4
Fixture: Czarni Połaniec vs KSZO 1929
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Czarni Połaniec 1.25 — KSZO 1929 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

III Liga - Group 4 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	10	8	2	0	26
2	Wisłoka Dębica	11	7	1	3	22
3	KSZO 1929	10	5	4	1	19
4	Czarni Połaniec	10	6	1	3	19
5	Jarosław	10	5	2	3	17
6	Naprzód	10	5	2	3	17
7	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	11	5	2	4	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	13
10	Wisła Kraków II	10	3	4	3	13
11	Sokół Kolb.	10	2	6	2	12
12	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	11	3	3	5	12
13	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	11
14	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	11
15	Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	11
16	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	7
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	11	2	1	8	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Jarosław	10	26	17	+9	17
2	Naprzód	10	24	20	+4	17
3	Korona Kielce II	10	21	26	-5	8
4	Hetman Zamosc	10	18	18	0	13
5	Czarni Połaniec	10	17	15	+2	19
6	Chełmianka Chełm	10	16	3	+13	26
7	Wisłoka Dębica	11	16	13	+3	22
8	KSZO 1929	10	15	8	+7	19
9	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	11	15	11	+4	17
10	Busko-Zdroj	10	14	21	-7	11
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	13	13	0	14
12	Wisła Kraków II	10	13	13	0	13
13	Star Starachowice	11	13	17	-4	11
14	Moravia Morawica	10	11	20	-9	7
15	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	11	11	21	-10	7
16	Sokół Kolb.	10	10	10	0	12
17	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	11	10	13	-3	12
18	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	11	10	14	-4	11