Jarosław vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów Statistics & Analysis

Jarosław

Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00

5 1.27

2 1.33

xG Accuracy: 30%

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów Jarosław ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8683119

Closing Odds 1.7

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Jarosław win · Jarosław 5–2 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Jarosław (1X2)	33.8	52.1	-18.4
Draw (1X2)	29.6	23.0	+6.6
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów (1X2)	36.6	24.8	+11.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	63.1	-14.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	36.9	+14.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.9%. The difference — about 14.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Jarosław (1X2)	1.7	1.7
Draw (1X2)	3.85	3.85
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów (1X2)	3.57	3.57
Over 2.5 goals	1.45	1.45
Under 2.5 goals	2.48	2.48

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: III Liga - Group 4
Fixture: Jarosław vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
xG (showing): Jarosław 1.27 — Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.3% · Probability edge: +18.5 pts · Est. EV: +50.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

III Liga - Group 4 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	10	8	2	0	26
2	KSZO 1929	9	5	4	0	19
3	Czarni Połaniec	10	6	1	3	19
4	Wisłoka Dębica	10	6	1	3	19
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	10	5	2	3	17
6	Naprzód	10	5	2	3	17
7	Jarosław	9	5	1	3	16
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	14
9	Wisła Kraków II	10	3	4	3	13
10	Sokół Kolb.	10	2	6	2	12
11	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	10	3	2	5	11
12	Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	11
13	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	10
14	Star Starachowice	10	2	4	4	10
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	8
16	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	8
17	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	10	2	1	7	7
18	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Jarosław	9	24	15	+9	16
2	Naprzód	10	24	20	+4	17
3	Korona Kielce II	10	21	26	-5	8
4	Czarni Połaniec	10	17	15	+2	19
5	Chełmianka Chełm	10	16	3	+13	26
6	Hetman Zamosc	9	16	17	-1	10
7	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	10	15	10	+5	17
8	KSZO 1929	9	14	6	+8	19
9	Wisłoka Dębica	10	14	12	+2	19
10	Busko-Zdroj	10	14	21	-7	11
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	13	13	0	14
12	Wisła Kraków II	10	13	13	0	13
13	Star Starachowice	10	11	15	-4	10
14	Sokół Kolb.	10	10	10	0	12
15	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	10	10	19	-9	7
16	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	10	9	14	-5	8
17	Moravia Morawica	9	9	18	-9	6
18	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	10	8	11	-3	11