Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs KSZO 1929

Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs KSZO 1929 Statistics & Analysis

Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Aug 19, 2026 - 17:46
2 1.17
2 1.43
xG Accuracy: 68%
KSZO 1929 KSZO 1929
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 KSZO 1929 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 13, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3820638

Closing Odds 2.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2–2 KSZO 1929
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices KSZO 1929 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on KSZO 1929 (1X2) by about 4.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Wiślanie Jaśkowice (1X2) 29.3 33.2 -4.0
Draw (1X2) 29.4 29.5 -0.1
KSZO 1929 (1X2) 41.4 37.3 +4.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 51.6 -3.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 48.4 +3.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.4% on KSZO 1929 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 37.3%. The difference — about 4.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Wiślanie Jaśkowice (1X2) 2.68 2.68 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.02 3.02 0.0
KSZO 1929 (1X2) 2.39 2.39 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.8 1.8 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.92 1.92 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs KSZO 1929
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-19 17:46:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.17 — KSZO 1929 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.3% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +12.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 10 8 2 0 26
2 KSZO 1929 9 5 4 0 19
3 Czarni Połaniec 10 6 1 3 19
4 Wisłoka Dębica 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 5 2 3 17
6 Naprzód 10 5 2 3 17
7 Jarosław 9 5 1 3 16
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 14
9 Wisła Kraków II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sokół Kolb. 10 2 6 2 12
11 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 3 2 5 11
12 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 11
13 Hetman Zamosc 9 2 4 3 10
14 Star Starachowice 10 2 4 4 10
15 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 8
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 2 2 6 8
17 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 2 1 7 7
18 Moravia Morawica 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jarosław 9 24 15 +9 16
2 Naprzód 10 24 20 +4 17
3 Korona Kielce II 10 21 26 -5 8
4 Czarni Połaniec 10 17 15 +2 19
5 Chełmianka Chełm 10 16 3 +13 26
6 Hetman Zamosc 9 16 17 -1 10
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 15 10 +5 17
8 KSZO 1929 9 14 6 +8 19
9 Wisłoka Dębica 10 14 12 +2 19
10 Busko-Zdroj 10 14 21 -7 11
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 13 13 0 14
12 Wisła Kraków II 10 13 13 0 13
13 Star Starachowice 10 11 15 -4 10
14 Sokół Kolb. 10 10 10 0 12
15 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 10 19 -9 7
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 9 14 -5 8
17 Moravia Morawica 9 9 18 -9 6
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 8 11 -3 11
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions