Hetman Zamosc vs Star Starachowice Statistics & Analysis

Hetman Zamosc

Aug 15, 2026 - 15:00

3 1.28

0 1.32

xG Accuracy: 43%

Star Starachowice

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Star Starachowice Hetman Zamosc ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3359103

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hetman Zamosc win · Hetman Zamosc 3–0 Star Starachowice

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: III Liga - Group 4
Fixture: Hetman Zamosc vs Star Starachowice
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Hetman Zamosc 1.28 — Star Starachowice 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

III Liga - Group 4 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Chełmianka Chełm	10	8	2	0	26
2	KSZO 1929	9	5	4	0	19
3	Czarni Połaniec	10	6	1	3	19
4	Wisłoka Dębica	10	6	1	3	19
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	10	5	2	3	17
6	Naprzód	10	5	2	3	17
7	Jarosław	9	5	1	3	16
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	14
9	Wisła Kraków II	10	3	4	3	13
10	Sokół Kolb.	10	2	6	2	12
11	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	10	3	2	5	11
12	Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	11
13	Hetman Zamosc	9	2	4	3	10
14	Star Starachowice	10	2	4	4	10
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	8
16	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	8
17	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	10	2	1	7	7
18	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Jarosław	9	24	15	+9	16
2	Naprzód	10	24	20	+4	17
3	Korona Kielce II	10	21	26	-5	8
4	Czarni Połaniec	10	17	15	+2	19
5	Chełmianka Chełm	10	16	3	+13	26
6	Hetman Zamosc	9	16	17	-1	10
7	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	10	15	10	+5	17
8	KSZO 1929	9	14	6	+8	19
9	Wisłoka Dębica	10	14	12	+2	19
10	Busko-Zdroj	10	14	21	-7	11
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	13	13	0	14
12	Wisła Kraków II	10	13	13	0	13
13	Star Starachowice	10	11	15	-4	10
14	Sokół Kolb.	10	10	10	0	12
15	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	10	10	19	-9	7
16	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	10	9	14	-5	8
17	Moravia Morawica	9	9	18	-9	6
18	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	10	8	11	-3	11