Atlético Tembetary vs Independiente F.b.c. Statistics & Analysis

Atlético Tembetary

Jul 07, 2026 - 22:00

2 1.44

2 1.16

xG Accuracy: 68%

Independiente F.b.c.

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Atlético Tembetary Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 10:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2984163

Closing Odds 2.46

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Atlético Tembetary 2–2 Independiente F.b.c.

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Atlético Tembetary (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Atlético Tembetary (1X2) by about 6.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Atlético Tembetary (1X2)	41.9	35.1	+6.8
Draw (1X2)	29.3	29.0	+0.3
Independiente F.b.c. (1X2)	28.8	35.9	-7.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	49.3	-1.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	50.7	+1.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.9% on Atlético Tembetary (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 35.1%. The difference — about 6.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Atlético Tembetary (1X2)	2.52	2.52
Draw (1X2)	3.05	3.05
Independiente F.b.c. (1X2)	2.46	2.46
Over 2.5 goals	1.87	1.87
Under 2.5 goals	1.82	1.82

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Division Intermedia
Fixture: Atlético Tembetary vs Independiente F.b.c.
Kickoff: 2026-07-07 22:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
xG (showing): Atlético Tembetary 1.44 — Independiente F.b.c. 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Division Intermedia — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	26	16	3	7	51
2	General Caballero	26	15	5	6	50
3	12 de Junio VH	26	14	7	5	49
4	Benjamín Aceval	26	12	6	8	42
5	SOL DE America	26	9	13	4	40
6	Sportivo Carapeguá	26	11	5	10	38
7	Independiente F.b.c.	26	9	10	7	37
8	Paraguari AC	25	10	5	10	35
9	Resistencia	26	8	8	10	32
10	Fernando De La Mora	25	8	7	10	31
11	Atlético Tembetary	25	8	6	11	30
12	Deportivo Capiata	26	6	10	10	28
13	3 de Noviembre	26	6	8	12	26
14	Guairena FC	25	6	7	12	25
15	Tacuary	26	4	12	10	24
16	Encarnación	26	6	4	16	22

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	General Caballero	26	52	33	+19	50
2	Deportivo Santani	26	45	25	+20	51
3	Benjamín Aceval	26	40	32	+8	42
4	Independiente F.b.c.	26	37	33	+4	37
5	12 de Junio VH	26	35	26	+9	49
6	Paraguari AC	25	34	33	+1	35
7	Atlético Tembetary	25	34	39	-5	30
8	3 de Noviembre	26	33	39	-6	26
9	SOL DE America	26	32	24	+8	40
10	Sportivo Carapeguá	26	31	38	-7	38
11	Deportivo Capiata	26	30	36	-6	28
12	Resistencia	26	28	32	-4	32
13	Fernando De La Mora	25	28	35	-7	31
14	Tacuary	26	28	40	-12	24
15	Encarnación	26	25	36	-11	22
16	Guairena FC	25	22	33	-11	25