Progres Niederkorn vs Excelsior Virton Statistics & Analysis

Progres Niederkorn

Jul 25, 2026 - 15:00

1 1.24

1 1.36

xG Accuracy: 85%

Excelsior Virton

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Excelsior Virton Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454303

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Progres Niederkorn 1–1 Excelsior Virton

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Club Friendlies
Fixture: Progrès Niederkorn vs Excelsior Virton
Kickoff: 2026-07-26 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Progrès Niederkorn 1.24 — Excelsior Virton 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.7% · Probability edge: +14.1 pts · Est. EV: +29.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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