Bergisch Gladbach vs 1.FC Köln Statistics & Analysis

Bergisch Gladbach

Jul 23, 2026 - 16:15

0 1.25

8 1.35

xG Accuracy: 11%

1.FC Köln

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 1.FC Köln 1.FC Köln ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-8 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1450486

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result 1.FC Köln win · Bergisch Gladbach 0–8 1.FC Köln

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Club Friendlies
Fixture: Bergisch Gladbach vs 1.FC Köln
Kickoff: 2026-07-23 16:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Bergisch Gladbach 1.25 — 1.FC Köln 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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