Statistics / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Polessya vs Shimizu S-pulse

Polessya vs Shimizu S-pulse Statistics & Analysis

Polessya Polessya
Jul 14, 2026 - 09:00
1 1.36
3 1.24
xG Accuracy: 56%
Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Polessya Shimizu S-pulse ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1608220

Closing Odds 1.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Shimizu S-pulse win · Polessya 1–3 Shimizu S-pulse
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Shimizu S-pulse (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Polessya (1X2) 42.9 53.9 -11.0
Draw (1X2) 27.9 21.9 +5.9
Shimizu S-pulse (1X2) 29.2 24.2 +5.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 58.2 -10.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.8 +10.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.8%. The difference — about 10.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Polessya (1X2) 1.65 1.65 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.05 4.05 0.0
Shimizu S-pulse (1X2) 3.68 3.68 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.58 1.58 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.2 2.2 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Polessya vs Shimizu S-pulse
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-14 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 27.9% · Away 29.2%
  • xG (showing): Polessya 1.36 — Shimizu S-pulse 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.5% · Probability edge: +8.3 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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