Statistics / Football / England. League Cup / Mansfield Town vs Sheffield Utd

Mansfield Town vs Sheffield Utd Statistics & Analysis

Mansfield Town Mansfield Town
Aug 09, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.34
3 1.26
xG Accuracy: 43%
Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mansfield Town Sheffield Utd ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2965655

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sheffield Utd win · Mansfield Town 0–3 Sheffield Utd
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.76 percentage points on Mansfield Town (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Mansfield Town (1X2) by about 11.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Mansfield Town (1X2) 37.0 25.2 +11.9
Draw (1X2) 29.6 25.0 +4.6
Sheffield Utd (1X2) 33.4 49.8 -16.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 50.9 -2.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 49.1 +2.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Mansfield Town (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.2%. The difference — about 11.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Mansfield Town (1X2) 3.89 3.78 +0.8
Draw (1X2) 3.79 3.81 -0.1
Sheffield Utd (1X2) 1.88 1.91 -0.7
Over 2.5 goals 1.88 1.88 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.95 1.95 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: League Cup
  • Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Sheffield Utd
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Mansfield Town 1.34 — Sheffield Utd 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Mansfield Town
  • Model: 37.0% · Implied: 25.2% · Probability edge: +11.9 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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