Statistics / Football / Georgia. David Kipiani Cup / Guria vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Guria vs Dinamo Tbilisi Statistics & Analysis

Guria Guria
Jul 26, 2026 - 12:30
1 1.16
0 1.44
xG Accuracy: 64%
Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dinamo Tbilisi Guria ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454291

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Guria win · Guria 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: David Kipiani Cup
  • Fixture: Guria vs Dinamo Tbilisi
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
  • xG (showing): Guria 1.16 — Dinamo Tbilisi 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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