Leevon / PPK vs Riga Statistics & Analysis

Leevon / PPK

Jul 10, 2026 - 17:00

2 1.13

3 1.47

xG Accuracy: 52%

Riga

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Riga Riga ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 03, 2026 · 15:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2936058

Closing Odds 1.04

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Riga win · Leevon / PPK 2–3 Riga

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Leevon / PPK (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 14.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Leevon / PPK (1X2)	18.1	5.9	+12.2
Draw (1X2)	22.0	7.2	+14.8
Riga (1X2)	59.9	86.9	-27.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 22.0% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 7.2%. The difference — about 14.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Leevon / PPK (1X2)	15.36	15.36
Draw (1X2)	12.54	12.54
Riga (1X2)	1.04	1.04

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Cup
Fixture: Leevon / PPK vs Riga
Kickoff: 2026-07-10 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 18.1% · Draw 22.0% · Away 59.9%
xG (showing): Leevon / PPK 1.13 — Riga 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Leevon / PPK & Riga!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics