Statistics / Football / World. World Cup / Belgium vs Senegal

Belgium vs Senegal Statistics & Analysis

Belgium Belgium
Jul 01, 2026 - 20:00
3 1.33
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 70%
Senegal Senegal
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Senegal Belgium ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 18:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1623356

Closing Odds 3.85
AI Fair Odds 2.75
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Belgium win · Belgium 3–2 Senegal
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 36.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Senegal (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Senegal (1X2) by about 11.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Belgium (1X2) 34.6 45.5 -10.9
Draw (1X2) 29.0 29.1 -0.1
Senegal (1X2) 36.4 25.4 +11.0
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 52.2 -1.6
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 47.8 +1.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.4% on Senegal (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.4%. The difference — about 11.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Belgium (1X2) 2.14 2.15 -0.2
Draw (1X2) 3.4 3.37 +0.3
Senegal (1X2) 3.84 3.85 -0.1
Over 2.5 goals 1.85 1.87 -0.5
Under 2.5 goals 2.06 2.04 +0.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: World Cup
  • Fixture: Belgium vs Senegal
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-01 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.6% · Draw 29.0% · Away 36.4%
  • xG (showing): Belgium 1.3314386697357576 — Senegal 1.3685613302642425 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Senegal
  • Model: 36.4% · Implied: 25.4% · Probability edge: +10.9 pts · Est. EV: +8.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.5% · No 43.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Belgium & Senegal!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
World Cup World Cup — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 9
2 South Africa 3 1 1 1 4
3 South Korea 3 1 0 2 3
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6 0 +6 9
2 South Africa 3 2 3 -1 4
3 South Korea 3 2 3 -1 3
4 Czech Republic 3 2 6 -4 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6.6 3.8 +2.8 9
2 South Korea 3 4.1 2.5 +1.6 3
3 South Africa 3 2.7 4.7 -2.0 4
4 Czech Republic 3 2.4 5.4 -3.0 1