1860 München II vs TuS Geretsried Statistics & Analysis

1860 München II

Jul 17, 2026 - 17:00

5 1.43

1 1.17

xG Accuracy: 36%

TuS Geretsried

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 1860 München II 1860 München II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 12:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3175098

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result 1860 München II win · 1860 München II 5–1 TuS Geretsried

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Oberliga Bayern Süd
Fixture: 1860 München II vs TuS Geretsried
Kickoff: 2026-07-17 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
xG (showing): 1860 München II 1.43 — TuS Geretsried 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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