Jahn Regensburg II vs Ammerthal Statistics & Analysis

Jahn Regensburg II

Aug 27, 2026 - 17:00

4 1.42

2 1.18

xG Accuracy: 39%

Ammerthal

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Jahn Regensburg II Jahn Regensburg II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 21, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4777626

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Jahn Regensburg II win · Jahn Regensburg II 4–2 Ammerthal

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Oberliga - Bayern Nord
Fixture: Jahn Regensburg II vs Ammerthal
Kickoff: 2026-08-27 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
xG (showing): Jahn Regensburg II 1.42 — Ammerthal 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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