Spišská Nová Ves vs Vranov nad Topľou Statistics & Analysis

Spišská Nová Ves

Aug 08, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.56

0 1.04

xG Accuracy: 67%

Vranov nad Topľou

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Spišská Nová Ves Spišská Nová Ves ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2823722

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Spišská Nová Ves win · Spišská Nová Ves 2–0 Vranov nad Topľou

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 3. liga - East
Fixture: Spišská Nová Ves vs Vranov nad Topľou
Kickoff: 2026-08-08 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 47.8% · Draw 28.5% · Away 23.7%
xG (showing): Spišská Nová Ves 1.56 — Vranov nad Topľou 1.04 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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