Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Premier League / Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Bukovyna

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Bukovyna Statistics & Analysis

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Sep 19, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.43
0 1.17
xG Accuracy: 62%
Bukovyna Bukovyna
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8656662

Closing Odds 2.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win · Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2–0 Bukovyna
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Bukovyna (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bukovyna (1X2) by about 3.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (1X2) 41.4 44.8 -3.5
Draw (1X2) 29.4 29.2 +0.2
Bukovyna (1X2) 29.3 26.0 +3.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 47.4 +0.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 52.6 -0.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.3% on Bukovyna (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.0%. The difference — about 3.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (1X2) 2.07 2.07 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.18 3.18 0.0
Bukovyna (1X2) 3.57 3.57 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.01 2.01 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.81 1.81 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Bukovyna
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.43 — Bukovyna 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.1% · Implied: 52.3% · Probability edge: +1.8 pts · Est. EV: +3.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polessya 7 6 0 1 18
2 Shakhtar Donetsk 7 6 0 1 18
3 Karpaty 7 4 2 1 14
4 Dynamo Kyiv 6 4 1 1 13
5 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 6 4 0 2 12
6 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 7 2 2 3 8
7 LNZ Cherkasy 7 2 2 3 8
8 Zorya Luhansk 7 2 2 3 8
9 Livyi Bereh 6 1 4 1 7
10 Bukovyna 7 1 4 2 7
11 Veres Rivne 6 1 3 2 6
12 Chornomorets 6 1 2 3 5
13 Kolos Kovalivka 6 1 2 3 5
14 Kryvbas KR 6 1 2 3 5
15 Obolon'-Brovar 7 0 4 3 4
16 Kudrivka 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Shakhtar Donetsk 7 15 4 +11 18
2 Polessya 7 15 5 +10 18
3 Karpaty 7 15 5 +10 14
4 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 6 12 4 +8 12
5 Dynamo Kyiv 6 9 5 +4 13
6 Kryvbas KR 6 7 10 -3 5
7 Zorya Luhansk 7 7 11 -4 8
8 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 7 6 7 -1 8
9 Kolos Kovalivka 6 6 10 -4 5
10 LNZ Cherkasy 7 5 8 -3 8
11 Livyi Bereh 6 4 3 +1 7
12 Veres Rivne 6 4 5 -1 6
13 Bukovyna 7 4 6 -2 7
14 Kudrivka 6 4 16 -12 2
15 Chornomorets 6 3 7 -4 5
16 Obolon'-Brovar 7 2 12 -10 4
Premier League Ukraine. Premier League Predictions