Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Premier League / Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Statistics & Analysis

Dynamo Kyiv Dynamo Kyiv
Sep 14, 2026 - 12:30
3 2.52
0 1.13
xG Accuracy: 64%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dynamo Kyiv Dynamo Kyiv ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-1, 3-0 3-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7571375

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Dynamo Kyiv win · Dynamo Kyiv 3–0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Dynamo Kyiv (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 13.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dynamo Kyiv (1X2) 66.6 59.0 +7.6
Draw (1X2) 19.2 21.6 -2.4
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (1X2) 14.2 19.4 -5.2
Over 2.5 goals 70.6 56.8 +13.8
Under 2.5 goals 29.4 43.2 -13.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 70.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 56.8%. The difference — about 13.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Dynamo Kyiv (1X2) 1.57 1.57 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.29 4.29 0.0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (1X2) 4.79 4.79 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.66 1.66 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.18 2.18 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-14 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 66.6% · Draw 19.2% · Away 14.2%
  • xG (showing): Dynamo Kyiv 2.52 — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.13 (total xG ≈ 3.65)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 70.6% · Implied: 58.5% · Probability edge: +12.1 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.2% · No 36.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polessya 7 6 0 1 18
2 Shakhtar Donetsk 7 6 0 1 18
3 Karpaty 7 4 2 1 14
4 Dynamo Kyiv 6 4 1 1 13
5 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 6 4 0 2 12
6 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 7 2 2 3 8
7 LNZ Cherkasy 7 2 2 3 8
8 Zorya Luhansk 7 2 2 3 8
9 Livyi Bereh 6 1 4 1 7
10 Bukovyna 7 1 4 2 7
11 Veres Rivne 6 1 3 2 6
12 Chornomorets 6 1 2 3 5
13 Kolos Kovalivka 6 1 2 3 5
14 Kryvbas KR 6 1 2 3 5
15 Obolon'-Brovar 7 0 4 3 4
16 Kudrivka 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Shakhtar Donetsk 7 15 4 +11 18
2 Polessya 7 15 5 +10 18
3 Karpaty 7 15 5 +10 14
4 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 6 12 4 +8 12
5 Dynamo Kyiv 6 9 5 +4 13
6 Kryvbas KR 6 7 10 -3 5
7 Zorya Luhansk 7 7 11 -4 8
8 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 7 6 7 -1 8
9 Kolos Kovalivka 6 6 10 -4 5
10 LNZ Cherkasy 7 5 8 -3 8
11 Livyi Bereh 6 4 3 +1 7
12 Veres Rivne 6 4 5 -1 6
13 Bukovyna 7 4 6 -2 7
14 Kudrivka 6 4 16 -12 2
15 Chornomorets 6 3 7 -4 5
16 Obolon'-Brovar 7 2 12 -10 4
Premier League Ukraine. Premier League Predictions