Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Premier League / Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Statistics & Analysis

Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk
Aug 31, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.10
3 1.31
xG Accuracy: 46%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5297912

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win · Zorya Luhansk 0–3 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 2.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Zorya Luhansk (1X2) 29.5 29.5 +0.0
Draw (1X2) 30.8 28.1 +2.6
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (1X2) 39.7 42.4 -2.7
Over 2.5 goals 43.3 42.9 +0.4
Under 2.5 goals 56.7 57.1 -0.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.8% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.1%. The difference — about 2.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Zorya Luhansk (1X2) 3.15 3.15 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (1X2) 2.19 2.19 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.2 2.2 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.65 1.65 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.5% · Draw 30.8% · Away 39.7%
  • xG (showing): Zorya Luhansk 1.1 — Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.41)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 56.7% · Over 2.5 43.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 50.4% · No 49.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.4% · No 49.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polessya 7 6 0 1 18
2 Shakhtar Donetsk 7 6 0 1 18
3 Karpaty 7 4 2 1 14
4 Dynamo Kyiv 6 4 1 1 13
5 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 6 4 0 2 12
6 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 7 2 2 3 8
7 LNZ Cherkasy 7 2 2 3 8
8 Zorya Luhansk 7 2 2 3 8
9 Livyi Bereh 6 1 4 1 7
10 Bukovyna 7 1 4 2 7
11 Veres Rivne 6 1 3 2 6
12 Chornomorets 6 1 2 3 5
13 Kolos Kovalivka 6 1 2 3 5
14 Kryvbas KR 6 1 2 3 5
15 Obolon'-Brovar 7 0 4 3 4
16 Kudrivka 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Shakhtar Donetsk 7 15 4 +11 18
2 Polessya 7 15 5 +10 18
3 Karpaty 7 15 5 +10 14
4 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 6 12 4 +8 12
5 Dynamo Kyiv 6 9 5 +4 13
6 Kryvbas KR 6 7 10 -3 5
7 Zorya Luhansk 7 7 11 -4 8
8 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 7 6 7 -1 8
9 Kolos Kovalivka 6 6 10 -4 5
10 LNZ Cherkasy 7 5 8 -3 8
11 Livyi Bereh 6 4 3 +1 7
12 Veres Rivne 6 4 5 -1 6
13 Bukovyna 7 4 6 -2 7
14 Kudrivka 6 4 16 -12 2
15 Chornomorets 6 3 7 -4 5
16 Obolon'-Brovar 7 2 12 -10 4
Premier League Ukraine. Premier League Predictions