Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Premier League / Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy

Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy Statistics & Analysis

Karpaty Karpaty
Aug 10, 2026 - 15:00
3 0.87
0 1.15
xG Accuracy: 41%
LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 LNZ Cherkasy Karpaty ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 02:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2971811

Closing Odds 2.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Karpaty win · Karpaty 3–0 LNZ Cherkasy
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices LNZ Cherkasy (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on LNZ Cherkasy (1X2) by about 8.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Karpaty (1X2) 25.9 34.9 -9.0
Draw (1X2) 33.6 33.1 +0.5
LNZ Cherkasy (1X2) 40.5 32.0 +8.5
Over 2.5 goals 32.9 37.5 -4.6
Under 2.5 goals 67.1 62.5 +4.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.5% on LNZ Cherkasy (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.0%. The difference — about 8.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Karpaty (1X2) 2.66 2.66 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.8 2.8 0.0
LNZ Cherkasy (1X2) 2.9 2.9 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.5 2.5 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.5 1.5 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.9% · Draw 33.7% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Karpaty 0.87 — LNZ Cherkasy 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.02)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 67.1% · Over 2.5 32.9%); BTTS No (Yes 41.4% · No 58.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 41.4% · No 58.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (15.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polessya 7 6 0 1 18
2 Shakhtar Donetsk 7 6 0 1 18
3 Karpaty 7 4 2 1 14
4 Dynamo Kyiv 6 4 1 1 13
5 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 6 4 0 2 12
6 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 7 2 2 3 8
7 LNZ Cherkasy 7 2 2 3 8
8 Zorya Luhansk 7 2 2 3 8
9 Livyi Bereh 6 1 4 1 7
10 Bukovyna 7 1 4 2 7
11 Veres Rivne 6 1 3 2 6
12 Chornomorets 6 1 2 3 5
13 Kolos Kovalivka 6 1 2 3 5
14 Kryvbas KR 6 1 2 3 5
15 Obolon'-Brovar 7 0 4 3 4
16 Kudrivka 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Shakhtar Donetsk 7 15 4 +11 18
2 Polessya 7 15 5 +10 18
3 Karpaty 7 15 5 +10 14
4 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 6 12 4 +8 12
5 Dynamo Kyiv 6 9 5 +4 13
6 Kryvbas KR 6 7 10 -3 5
7 Zorya Luhansk 7 7 11 -4 8
8 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 7 6 7 -1 8
9 Kolos Kovalivka 6 6 10 -4 5
10 LNZ Cherkasy 7 5 8 -3 8
11 Livyi Bereh 6 4 3 +1 7
12 Veres Rivne 6 4 5 -1 6
13 Bukovyna 7 4 6 -2 7
14 Kudrivka 6 4 16 -12 2
15 Chornomorets 6 3 7 -4 5
16 Obolon'-Brovar 7 2 12 -10 4
Premier League Ukraine. Premier League Predictions