Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga I / FC Voluntari vs Oţelul

FC Voluntari vs Oţelul Statistics & Analysis

FC Voluntari FC Voluntari
Aug 28, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.74
2 1.57
xG Accuracy: 83%
Oţelul Oţelul
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Voluntari Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 2-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5157916

Closing Odds 2.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · FC Voluntari 2–2 Oţelul
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices FC Voluntari (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 18.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Voluntari (1X2) 40.0 36.7 +3.3
Draw (1X2) 26.7 29.1 -2.4
Oţelul (1X2) 33.3 34.2 -0.9
Over 2.5 goals 64.3 46.2 +18.1
Under 2.5 goals 35.7 53.8 -18.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 64.3% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.2%. The difference — about 18.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Voluntari (1X2) 2.6 2.6 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.28 3.28 0.0
Oţelul (1X2) 2.79 2.79 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.07 2.07 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.78 1.78 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga I
  • Fixture: FC Voluntari vs Oţelul
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 26.7% · Away 33.3%
  • xG (showing): FC Voluntari 1.74 — Oţelul 1.57 (total xG ≈ 3.31)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 64.3% · Implied: 46.3% · Probability edge: +18.0 pts · Est. EV: +35.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Bucuresti 9 6 2 1 20
2 Rapid 9 5 3 1 18
3 Universitatea Craiova 9 5 2 2 17
4 Petrolul Ploiesti 8 5 0 3 15
5 Farul Constanta 9 3 5 1 14
6 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 9 3 4 2 13
7 FC Botosani 9 2 5 2 11
8 FCSB 8 3 2 3 11
9 Arges Pitesti 9 3 2 4 11
10 Corvinul Hunedoara 9 2 4 3 10
11 Oţelul 8 2 4 2 10
12 CFR 1907 Cluj 8 3 1 4 10
13 Uta Arad 9 2 3 4 9
14 Universitatea Cluj 7 3 0 4 9
15 FC Voluntari 9 2 2 5 8
16 Csikszereda 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Bucuresti 9 19 7 +12 20
2 Universitatea Craiova 9 19 9 +10 17
3 Farul Constanta 9 14 10 +4 14
4 FC Botosani 9 13 9 +4 11
5 Uta Arad 9 13 15 -2 9
6 CFR 1907 Cluj 8 12 13 -1 10
7 Rapid 9 11 5 +6 18
8 FCSB 8 11 10 +1 11
9 Oţelul 8 9 9 0 10
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 8 9 10 -1 15
11 Universitatea Cluj 7 9 13 -4 9
12 FC Voluntari 9 9 20 -11 8
13 Corvinul Hunedoara 9 8 7 +1 10
14 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 9 7 9 -2 13
15 Csikszereda 9 6 21 -15 1
16 Arges Pitesti 9 5 7 -2 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Rapid 9 4.0 1.6 +2.4 18
2 Farul Constanta 9 1.7 1.0 +0.7 14
3 Dinamo Bucuresti 9 3.6 3.0 +0.6 20
4 FCSB 8 1.9 1.4 +0.5 11
5 FC Voluntari 9 2.9 2.6 +0.3 8
6 Csikszereda 9 1.3 1.3 0.0 1
7 FC Botosani 9 2.6 2.9 -0.3 11
8 Arges Pitesti 9 1.4 1.9 -0.5 11
9 Universitatea Cluj 7 1.0 1.7 -0.7 9
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 8 1.4 2.2 -0.8 15
11 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 9 1.4 3.6 -2.2 13
12 Universitatea Craiova 9 — — — 17
13 Corvinul Hunedoara 9 — — — 10
14 Oţelul 8 — — — 10
15 CFR 1907 Cluj 8 — — — 10
16 Uta Arad 9 — — — 9
Liga I Romania. Liga I Predictions