Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga I / Universitatea Craiova vs FC Voluntari

Universitatea Craiova vs FC Voluntari Statistics & Analysis

Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova
Aug 23, 2026 - 15:30
3 1.85
1 1.46
xG Accuracy: 64%
FC Voluntari FC Voluntari
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4367285

Closing Odds 1.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Universitatea Craiova win · Universitatea Craiova 3–1 FC Voluntari
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.55 percentage points on Universitatea Craiova (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on FC Voluntari (1X2) by about 9.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Universitatea Craiova (1X2) 52.9 66.3 -13.4
Draw (1X2) 24.0 20.1 +3.9
FC Voluntari (1X2) 23.0 13.6 +9.5
Over 2.5 goals 64.3 55.6 +8.7
Under 2.5 goals 35.7 44.4 -8.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 23.0% on FC Voluntari (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.6%. The difference — about 9.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Universitatea Craiova (1X2) 1.38 1.43 -2.5
Draw (1X2) 4.97 4.71 +1.0
FC Voluntari (1X2) 7.9 6.99 +1.5
Over 2.5 goals 1.71 1.72 -0.3
Under 2.5 goals 2.16 2.15 +0.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga I
  • Fixture: Universitatea Craiova vs FC Voluntari
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 52.9% · Draw 24.0% · Away 23.0%
  • xG (showing): Universitatea Craiova 1.85 — FC Voluntari 1.46 (total xG ≈ 3.31)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 66.0% · Implied: 49.2% · Probability edge: +16.8 pts · Est. EV: +32.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Bucuresti 9 6 2 1 20
2 Rapid 9 5 3 1 18
3 Universitatea Craiova 9 5 2 2 17
4 Petrolul Ploiesti 8 5 0 3 15
5 Farul Constanta 9 3 5 1 14
6 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 9 3 4 2 13
7 FC Botosani 9 2 5 2 11
8 FCSB 8 3 2 3 11
9 Arges Pitesti 9 3 2 4 11
10 Corvinul Hunedoara 9 2 4 3 10
11 Oţelul 8 2 4 2 10
12 CFR 1907 Cluj 8 3 1 4 10
13 Uta Arad 9 2 3 4 9
14 Universitatea Cluj 7 3 0 4 9
15 FC Voluntari 9 2 2 5 8
16 Csikszereda 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Bucuresti 9 19 7 +12 20
2 Universitatea Craiova 9 19 9 +10 17
3 Farul Constanta 9 14 10 +4 14
4 FC Botosani 9 13 9 +4 11
5 Uta Arad 9 13 15 -2 9
6 CFR 1907 Cluj 8 12 13 -1 10
7 Rapid 9 11 5 +6 18
8 FCSB 8 11 10 +1 11
9 Oţelul 8 9 9 0 10
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 8 9 10 -1 15
11 Universitatea Cluj 7 9 13 -4 9
12 FC Voluntari 9 9 20 -11 8
13 Corvinul Hunedoara 9 8 7 +1 10
14 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 9 7 9 -2 13
15 Csikszereda 9 6 21 -15 1
16 Arges Pitesti 9 5 7 -2 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Rapid 9 4.0 1.6 +2.4 18
2 Farul Constanta 9 1.7 1.0 +0.7 14
3 Dinamo Bucuresti 9 3.6 3.0 +0.6 20
4 FCSB 8 1.9 1.4 +0.5 11
5 FC Voluntari 9 2.9 2.6 +0.3 8
6 Csikszereda 9 1.3 1.3 0.0 1
7 FC Botosani 9 2.6 2.9 -0.3 11
8 Arges Pitesti 9 1.4 1.9 -0.5 11
9 Universitatea Cluj 7 1.0 1.7 -0.7 9
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 8 1.4 2.2 -0.8 15
11 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 9 1.4 3.6 -2.2 13
12 Universitatea Craiova 9 — — — 17
13 Corvinul Hunedoara 9 — — — 10
14 Oţelul 8 — — — 10
15 CFR 1907 Cluj 8 — — — 10
16 Uta Arad 9 — — — 9
Liga I Romania. Liga I Predictions