Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga I / FC Voluntari vs Petrolul Ploiesti

FC Voluntari vs Petrolul Ploiesti Statistics & Analysis

FC Voluntari FC Voluntari
Aug 14, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.96
2 1.52
xG Accuracy: 67%
Petrolul Ploiesti Petrolul Ploiesti
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Voluntari Petrolul Ploiesti ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3227608

Closing Odds 3.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Petrolul Ploiesti win · FC Voluntari 1–2 Petrolul Ploiesti
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices FC Voluntari (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 24.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Voluntari (1X2) 46.9 42.0 +4.9
Draw (1X2) 24.2 30.0 -5.8
Petrolul Ploiesti (1X2) 28.9 28.0 +0.9
Over 2.5 goals 67.5 43.2 +24.3
Under 2.5 goals 32.5 56.8 -24.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 67.5% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 43.2%. The difference — about 24.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Voluntari (1X2) 2.27 2.27 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.18 3.18 0.0
Petrolul Ploiesti (1X2) 3.41 3.41 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.21 2.21 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.68 1.68 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga I
  • Fixture: FC Voluntari vs Petrolul Ploiesti
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.9% · Draw 24.2% · Away 28.9%
  • xG (showing): FC Voluntari 1.96 — Petrolul Ploiesti 1.52 (total xG ≈ 3.48)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.5% · Implied: 43.3% · Probability edge: +24.2 pts · Est. EV: +49.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Bucuresti 9 6 2 1 20
2 Rapid 9 5 3 1 18
3 Universitatea Craiova 9 5 2 2 17
4 Petrolul Ploiesti 8 5 0 3 15
5 Farul Constanta 9 3 5 1 14
6 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 9 3 4 2 13
7 FC Botosani 9 2 5 2 11
8 FCSB 8 3 2 3 11
9 Arges Pitesti 9 3 2 4 11
10 Corvinul Hunedoara 9 2 4 3 10
11 Oţelul 8 2 4 2 10
12 CFR 1907 Cluj 8 3 1 4 10
13 Uta Arad 9 2 3 4 9
14 Universitatea Cluj 7 3 0 4 9
15 FC Voluntari 9 2 2 5 8
16 Csikszereda 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Bucuresti 9 19 7 +12 20
2 Universitatea Craiova 9 19 9 +10 17
3 Farul Constanta 9 14 10 +4 14
4 FC Botosani 9 13 9 +4 11
5 Uta Arad 9 13 15 -2 9
6 CFR 1907 Cluj 8 12 13 -1 10
7 Rapid 9 11 5 +6 18
8 FCSB 8 11 10 +1 11
9 Oţelul 8 9 9 0 10
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 8 9 10 -1 15
11 Universitatea Cluj 7 9 13 -4 9
12 FC Voluntari 9 9 20 -11 8
13 Corvinul Hunedoara 9 8 7 +1 10
14 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 9 7 9 -2 13
15 Csikszereda 9 6 21 -15 1
16 Arges Pitesti 9 5 7 -2 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Rapid 9 4.0 1.6 +2.4 18
2 Farul Constanta 9 1.7 1.0 +0.7 14
3 Dinamo Bucuresti 9 3.6 3.0 +0.6 20
4 FCSB 8 1.9 1.4 +0.5 11
5 FC Voluntari 9 2.9 2.6 +0.3 8
6 Csikszereda 9 1.3 1.3 0.0 1
7 FC Botosani 9 2.6 2.9 -0.3 11
8 Arges Pitesti 9 1.4 1.9 -0.5 11
9 Universitatea Cluj 7 1.0 1.7 -0.7 9
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 8 1.4 2.2 -0.8 15
11 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 9 1.4 3.6 -2.2 13
12 Universitatea Craiova 9 — — — 17
13 Corvinul Hunedoara 9 — — — 10
14 Oţelul 8 — — — 10
15 CFR 1907 Cluj 8 — — — 10
16 Uta Arad 9 — — — 9
Liga I Romania. Liga I Predictions