Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga I / Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta

Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta Statistics & Analysis

Arges Pitesti Arges Pitesti
Aug 14, 2026 - 18:30
1 1.82
1 1.66
xG Accuracy: 67%
Farul Constanta Farul Constanta
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Arges Pitesti Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3235684

Closing Odds 3.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Arges Pitesti 1–1 Farul Constanta
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Farul Constanta (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 23.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Arges Pitesti (1X2) 40.6 39.8 +0.9
Draw (1X2) 26.4 31.2 -4.8
Farul Constanta (1X2) 32.9 29.0 +3.9
Over 2.5 goals 67.5 44.2 +23.3
Under 2.5 goals 32.5 55.8 -23.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 67.5% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 44.2%. The difference — about 23.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Arges Pitesti (1X2) 2.4 2.4 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.06 3.06 0.0
Farul Constanta (1X2) 3.29 3.29 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.16 2.16 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.71 1.71 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga I
  • Fixture: Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.6% · Draw 26.5% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Arges Pitesti 1.82 — Farul Constanta 1.66 (total xG ≈ 3.48)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.5% · Implied: 41.5% · Probability edge: +26.0 pts · Est. EV: +62.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 69.1% · No 30.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 7 2 1 23
2 Rapid 10 6 3 1 21
3 Universitatea Craiova 10 6 2 2 20
4 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 6 1 3 19
5 Universitatea Cluj 9 5 0 4 15
6 Farul Constanta 10 3 5 2 14
7 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 3 4 3 13
8 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 4 1 4 13
9 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 3 4 3 13
10 Uta Arad 10 3 3 4 12
11 FCSB 10 3 3 4 12
12 FC Botosani 10 2 5 3 11
13 Arges Pitesti 10 3 2 5 11
14 Oţelul 10 2 4 4 10
15 FC Voluntari 10 2 2 6 8
16 Csikszereda 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Universitatea Craiova 10 24 9 +15 20
2 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 23 7 +16 23
3 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 15 14 +1 13
4 Rapid 10 14 6 +8 21
5 FC Botosani 10 14 12 +2 11
6 Universitatea Cluj 9 14 13 +1 15
7 Farul Constanta 10 14 14 0 14
8 Uta Arad 10 14 15 -1 12
9 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 13 12 +1 19
10 FCSB 10 13 17 -4 12
11 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 11 9 +2 13
12 Oţelul 10 11 15 -4 10
13 FC Voluntari 10 9 22 -13 8
14 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 7 10 -3 13
15 Arges Pitesti 10 6 10 -4 11
16 Csikszereda 10 6 23 -17 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Rapid 10 4.0 1.6 +2.4 21
2 Farul Constanta 10 1.7 1.0 +0.7 14
3 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 3.6 3.0 +0.6 23
4 FCSB 10 1.9 1.4 +0.5 12
5 FC Voluntari 10 2.9 2.6 +0.3 8
6 Csikszereda 10 1.3 1.3 0.0 1
7 FC Botosani 10 2.6 2.9 -0.3 11
8 Arges Pitesti 10 1.4 1.9 -0.5 11
9 Universitatea Cluj 9 1.0 1.7 -0.7 15
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 1.4 2.2 -0.8 19
11 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 1.4 3.6 -2.2 13
12 Universitatea Craiova 10 — — — 20
13 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 — — — 13
14 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 — — — 13
15 Uta Arad 10 — — — 12
16 Oţelul 10 — — — 10
Liga I Romania. Liga I Predictions