Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga I / Farul Constanta vs Csikszereda

Farul Constanta vs Csikszereda Statistics & Analysis

Farul Constanta Farul Constanta
Aug 08, 2026 - 15:30
3 1.56
2 1.01
xG Accuracy: 51%
Csikszereda Csikszereda
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Farul Constanta Farul Constanta ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2824779

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Farul Constanta win · Farul Constanta 3–2 Csikszereda
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.94 percentage points on Farul Constanta (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 8.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Farul Constanta (1X2) 48.6 63.0 -14.5
Draw (1X2) 28.5 21.7 +6.8
Csikszereda (1X2) 22.9 15.2 +7.7
Over 2.5 goals 47.4 55.9 -8.5
Under 2.5 goals 52.6 44.1 +8.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 52.6% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 44.1%. The difference — about 8.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Farul Constanta (1X2) 1.53 1.51 +0.9
Draw (1X2) 4.28 4.38 -0.5
Csikszereda (1X2) 6.06 6.26 -0.5
Over 2.5 goals 1.72 1.71 +0.4
Under 2.5 goals 2.15 2.17 -0.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga I
  • Fixture: Farul Constanta vs Csikszereda
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.6% · Draw 28.5% · Away 22.9%
  • xG (showing): Farul Constanta 1.56 — Csikszereda 1.01 (total xG ≈ 2.57)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 52.6% · Implied: 44.4% · Probability edge: +8.2 pts · Est. EV: +15.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 7 2 1 23
2 Rapid 10 6 3 1 21
3 Universitatea Craiova 10 6 2 2 20
4 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 6 1 3 19
5 Universitatea Cluj 9 5 0 4 15
6 Farul Constanta 10 3 5 2 14
7 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 3 4 3 13
8 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 4 1 4 13
9 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 3 4 3 13
10 Uta Arad 10 3 3 4 12
11 FCSB 10 3 3 4 12
12 FC Botosani 10 2 5 3 11
13 Arges Pitesti 10 3 2 5 11
14 Oţelul 10 2 4 4 10
15 FC Voluntari 10 2 2 6 8
16 Csikszereda 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Universitatea Craiova 10 24 9 +15 20
2 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 23 7 +16 23
3 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 15 14 +1 13
4 Rapid 10 14 6 +8 21
5 FC Botosani 10 14 12 +2 11
6 Universitatea Cluj 9 14 13 +1 15
7 Farul Constanta 10 14 14 0 14
8 Uta Arad 10 14 15 -1 12
9 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 13 12 +1 19
10 FCSB 10 13 17 -4 12
11 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 11 9 +2 13
12 Oţelul 10 11 15 -4 10
13 FC Voluntari 10 9 22 -13 8
14 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 7 10 -3 13
15 Arges Pitesti 10 6 10 -4 11
16 Csikszereda 10 6 23 -17 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Rapid 10 4.0 1.6 +2.4 21
2 Farul Constanta 10 1.7 1.0 +0.7 14
3 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 3.6 3.0 +0.6 23
4 FCSB 10 1.9 1.4 +0.5 12
5 FC Voluntari 10 2.9 2.6 +0.3 8
6 Csikszereda 10 1.3 1.3 0.0 1
7 FC Botosani 10 2.6 2.9 -0.3 11
8 Arges Pitesti 10 1.4 1.9 -0.5 11
9 Universitatea Cluj 9 1.0 1.7 -0.7 15
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 1.4 2.2 -0.8 19
11 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 1.4 3.6 -2.2 13
12 Universitatea Craiova 10 — — — 20
13 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 — — — 13
14 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 — — — 13
15 Uta Arad 10 — — — 12
16 Oţelul 10 — — — 10
Liga I Romania. Liga I Predictions